Market Outlook RUT for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also weekly to an extent)

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

60mins: congestion to mildly up. pivot level at 812.

Lower time frames indicate still some slight upward bias to 820, and RUT could also reach 828(stronger MM + Fib), but current pivot level (812) is still very much valid. MTFS is a little hesitant and Entropy is fading fast.

Daily: Congestion to down.

Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias.

Weekly: mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion

60mins: mildly up.
Lower time frames indicate some slight upward bias, and SPY could well reach Fib PR1 or even 153 (MM+ Fib). MTFS is not looking too bad but Entropy could peak shortly. Significance level is lower
Daily: Congestion to down.
Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is the dominant time frame. One may have some congestion since we have Fib + MM level at 150. Caution must be exercised, at least until a new Fib formation appears clearly.
For the time being, lows are lower, and a strong base for support must be found to reassure the market. 150 is holding overall for the time being, but this high volatility environment can cause this level to be broken at least momentarily.
Weekly: mildly UP - Very low significance level.
Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion. The Swing indicator is very undecisive, so one may just be close to a key level.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly up.

Volatility is very high, possibly confirming our earlier diagnostic that we may be close to a key level. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
Major swings yesterday to return to more or less the same pivot level (2188). The market is quite resilient, for many reasons (exchange rate, world economic growth, bond market, real estate etc). Yet this does not appear to be stable over the medium term.
It is too early to project Fib expansion patterns, but we would like to make some sense of the current wide range congestion. There is still an upward bias, so there should be again some excursion above 2188, but we'll have to watch lower time frames for guidance, where a resistance level at 2219 is given.

Daily: Up, hopefully at a slower pace.
NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or prior stall level around current highs). MTFS green line holding well, so even if a retracement is expected it is nowehere visible in our indicators right now.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame.