Weekly Report - Jul 20th to 24th '09

Difficult to explain what happened last week... Was it motivated by some blue chips quartlerly results, options expiry on lower summer volumes. Who knows... Anyway, ES reached its strong resistance level on both 60mins and daily charts, and remains quite bullish still. It could possibly try to go a little higher (low 950s ?), but this is a good reversal area, so we'll be cautious and watch out for the next pivot.

The size of this upward retracement certainly exceeded our expectations, but one should always go with the flow. The market is always right after all. The weekly chart hasn't budged despite this last up bar looking like a spike. Swing is still down and the bar is still yellow, hence the trend is still valid for now until the latest highs are broken (HA Alert is right on that level).

TF (a.k.a. ER) has a little more residual bullishness and shows a upward provisional pivot alread and a HA_Alert very very close to this week's highs.

We should therefore watch out for the same breakout potential as for ES. It would be risky to try and read more "between the bars" as volume is likely to go lighter and lighter for the next 4 weeks now.

( posted Saturday 18th 7:30 AM UK )