Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jul 9th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance. MM/Fib levels are obviously symbol specific.

NB: AS THE SAYING (OR HEALTH WARNING) GOES, "FREE LUNCHES CAN MAKE YOU FAT" HENCE END OF DAILY SNAPSHOTS IS PROGRAMMED ON FRIDAY 11TH. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A FREE WEEKLY OR MONTHLY MARKET OUTLOOK. PLEASE CONTACT ME FOR PERSONALISED MARKET ANALYSIS.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jul 9th 2008

cf. NDX post for guidance. MM/Fib levels are however symbol specific.

NB: AS THE SAYING (OR HEALTH WARNING) GOES, "FREE LUNCHES CAN MAKE YOU FAT" HENCE END OF DAILY SNAPSHOTS IS PROGRAMMED ON FRIDAY 11TH. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A FREE WEEKLY OR MONTHLY MARKET OUTLOOK. PLEASE CONTACT ME FOR PERSONALISED MARKET ANALYSIS.

Market Outlook NDX for Jul 9th '08

Dominant TF: Daily, but would also follow 5mins or 15mins
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN), hesitation at 60mins level
Position (60mins): long to flat
Market Direction (Daily): congestion

Yesterday's forecast for ER2 was again accurate with my recommendation to take profits and change to a lower time frame to take advantage of the bounce.

This recommendation was also valid for NDX for which i gave a possible support around 1810 three days ago, and even warned short sellers to take profits then.

NB: FREE daily snapshots will come to an end this coming Friday.

60mins: recovery attempt.
Looking at lower time frames, NDX looks engaged into a recovery mode but that is not yet confirmed at this time frame where yersterday's up move may be little more than a short squeeze on support level. 1875 is now a very close target which could certainly be passed to reach a Fib PR1 retracement.
MTFS and Entropy are not yet indicative of a significant recovery but that possibility can nonetheless not be discarded. On account of the average significance level, we will take cues from lower time frames (15mins).

Daily: support may have been found on stall level
Good day yesterday, but certainly not enough to reverse the bear situation we're in for over a month. MTFS is nowhere near recovery mode, so one sould be in a congestion or at best a bounce to PR1. Having said that it may prove enough to stop the blodshed, hence a recovery is quite possible later in the months.

Weekly: Support to be confirmed still.
Despite a good day yesterday, a 2.43% gain in a day is nothing extraordinary with NDX, so again there is little change in our outlook at this weekly level. The support level we may have seen on the daily chart still has to materialise here too. In the meantime the negative bias is certainly still visible.
I said last time that MTFS despite showing a "failed recovery" pattern, was not quite indicative of a market fall just yet and we may indeed just enter a congestion period.

Valid notes pasted from last post: Since this is not the dominant time frames, we'll take cues from lower time frame indicators and we will rather focus on price patterns at this level: we will again keep in mind the last high around 2050 could turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1838 then 1700), or could still be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again we will remain quite cautious until a pattern is confirmed over the next 3 to 6 weeks. Nothing wrong with switching to lower time frames or otherwise enjoying some holiday...

NB: i increased the Swing search parameter to improve Swing Quality (SQ from 56% to 86%)