Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Quick update after Monday's "bloodshed"

Well, yesterday's "exciting" price action warrants an update on the public blog.

The update published just before lunch time yesterday was clear: prices were at the bottom of a segment, like on a thin string waiting to break. We however can't talk of a free fall, and yesterday's large %change also came from the friday afternoon's recovery wiped out over the weekend.

Anyway, let's look at possible support levels:

ER: 687.5 right now, otherwise down to 656, broken into 2 or 4 segments. Technically, same again to 625. This is quite unlikely though. We have to give this 687.5 level a chance first. A return to 656 would only be another round in cycles (as mentioned in previous posts) we've seen January. So let's just go with the flow again.

ES: levels are not as clearly depicted on our charts, and this may add some confusion for some. We have a support at 1165 which could hold today. There are other possible levels below, but i anticipate markets calming down.

EURUSD: The situation may be a little more confusing because the last upward retracement was a little too sudden to find an equilibrium price etc. Anyway, bears will be coming back and play the Euro down to the pivot level again (~1.416). Euro could also get back to recent lows below 1.41.