Market Outlook RUT for Nov 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, and short intraday time frames.
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: DOWN

Back from a nice break in the African bushveld...

60mins: congestion
MTFS and Entropy both indicate a congestion with a slight upward bias, but the significance level is very low, so onw should rather look at shorter intraday time frames for trading points or follow the daily chart for direction.

Daily: DOWN.
MTFS is bearish until lines meet, and Entropy is very bearish although at -5.5 it is likely to bottom out soon. A Fib pattern may have completed at 767, and may be tested again (or close) to complete the pattern fully. There is no indication yet that it will go much lower for now. No chance of a recovery though.

Weekly: congestion to mildly down
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may have a broad [750-875] trading range. The 750 level has indeed turned from pivot to strong support level. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly shorter intraday time frames

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to down.

Back to my daily snapshots after a great time in the African bushveld...

60mins: Congestion to down - Lower significance level

Entropy and MTFS point toward a minor fall or just a congestion within the current trading range. However 150 is now the upper resistance level, so one cannot discard testing lows again.

Daily: Down.

MTFS and Entropy do not look good and at this stage it is likely that the fall will continue until MTFS lines meet. We have to see whether the last bounce on PR2 around 145 will hold again.

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - very low significance level.

This time frame has such a low significance level it is pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias. If 145 fails to hold, SPY could well test the 137.50 level for a 3rd time...

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 15th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily, but mostly 15 and 30 mins charts
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to down.

Back to my daily snapshots after a great time in the African bushveld...

60mins: down
The down draft is not over yet, but Entropy and MTFS do not point toward a fall but rather to a test of 2000 again. Significance level at 0.69 is alright, but one should certainly take cues from shorter time frames for trading points.

Daily: Down.
MTFS and Entropy do not look good... One should pay attention to Fib and MM levels. MM target is 2000, then 1935 is a combined MM + Fib. Let's first see whether 2000 holds again...

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - very low significance level.
We knew we had to watch for that growing divergence, and Entropy peaking. Now, there is still no overall change in direction and this profit taking is only healthy after such a bull run. We have recurrence of the 1935 level, so it could certainly retrace a little more. Speed is however difficult to anticipate in this high vol environment.