Friday, September 26, 2008

End of another wild week...

Hello again,
Yesterday's general comments are still valid, i.e. shorter time frames are recommended as our visibility of 3 to 5 bars may sometimes be reduced in times of high volatility even if the outlook is overall correct. For instance, if we analyse yesterday's movements on ES, charts expressed an upward movement (strong open), yet the first 60mins bar closed around the upper boundary of our price segment (~1205), we then saw an excursion all day to the top of the price segment above to even reach the mid 1220s. ES closed lower and even lost about all gains in post market trading.
This is typical of a high volatility environment, but this warning should not affect our outlook overall. The general market dynamics stay the same.

EURUSD: We spent the day on shorter time frames where we watched the 1.464 level being tested over and over. We updated our support to the 1.4557 MM stall level very close to yesterday's lows. The bounce brought the €/$ more or less where it previously was and we now expect much of the same today with a slight upper bias.

ER: Not much movement here. ER tried to move to a higher price segment, but closed the day hovering at the boundary (~704), and sank in post market. We therefore expect a continuation of the same drifting situation and anticipate the market to test a strong support level. At the moment we canonly hope 688 will be that one. Again, it will take a long time to digest the current volatility.

ES: Same situation with the same ongoing drifting looking for a support level (1188 for now), and hoping for volatility to subside at these time frames. The hangover period is probably going to be very very long and we again recommend moving to lower time frames or stay on the side line for now.

(snapshots available on request)