Market Outlook RUT for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)

Swings: UP-DN-DN

Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, very strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.

The high volatility environment makes it sometimes difficult to gauge the amplitude of movements if direction and targets are analysed correctly. As anticipated, RUT is aiming at 828 (stronger MM + Fib), now that 812 is passed. MTFS and Entropy are looking good, yet this pattern is not indicative of a strong bull move.

Daily: Congestion to down.

Despite Friday's strong up move, there is no change in our analysis: Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias. Support on Fib and MM levels (cf chart) seems to hold though, so one must follow the formation of a Fib pattern accordingly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. The bar has turned red.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)

Swings: UP-UP-UP

Market direction: congestion.

Note: Swings are back UP, but this indicates we are close to a key level. Thursday's Down indication could very well be a warning, as the Swing indicator is very reactive. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy, yet one should avoid any wishful thinking as it is not visible on the charts just yet.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.

The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. We reached the high end of that range, which is also bumping on 'stall' level. Since there is still an upward bias, we'll have to watch this level carefully. If this level is passed, NDX will obviously aim for 2250.
Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding very well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight until it peaks.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: UP-DN-UP

Market direction: Probably up if support is confirmed.
60mins: up.

SPY reached 153 as expected, and still has some upward potential, so one could well get back to 156. 154.15 is the next Fib level, which should be passed if we consider the strong Entropy and the positive MTFS.

Daily: Congestion to down. Check levels carefully.

Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward but also seems to acknowledge the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. There is therefore no reason yet to believe it will go much higher.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level.

Entropy is looking OK, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.