Saturday, October 27, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 29th '07


Dominant TF: Daily (and low intraday time frames)
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: congestion to mildly down.

Again, very strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
The high volatility environment makes it sometimes difficult to gauge the amplitude of movements if direction and targets are analysed correctly. As anticipated, RUT is aiming at 828 (stronger MM + Fib), now that 812 is passed. MTFS and Entropy are looking good, yet this pattern is not indicative of a strong bull move.

Daily: Congestion to down.
Despite Friday's strong up move, there is no change in our analysis: Contrary to lower time frames, the daily chart still points downward, and this is by far the dominant time frame. Caution must be exercised, until Fib and MM give us indication of support. Until then: trading range with a downward bias. Support on Fib and MM levels (cf chart) seems to hold though, so one must follow the formation of a Fib pattern accordingly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. The bar has turned red.