Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 30th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion.

Note: Virually no change from yesterday.
NDX is still hovering around stall level, ahead of Fed rate announcement.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.
Same situation: The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. We reached the high end of that range, which is also bumping on 'stall' level. Since there is still an upward bias, we'll have to watch this level carefully. If this level is passed, NDX will obviously aim for 2250.Note that the MTFS pattern isn't clear, with the white line below the other lines and not even trying to catch up. Entropy is too high to see NDX peaking yet, but we'll have to watch its behaviour carefully (Fed??).
Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.
Same situation:NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding very well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight until it peaks.