Morning Update - Dec 11th 2009

ES hit 1105 as planned.
EURUSD broke out as anticipated.

Look for support on EURUSD though: 1.464 while penetrated can't really break today. Traders are just aiming at Fib on 1.4611 where it will bounce and maybe stabilize.

3:25 PM UK

Market Update - Dec 11th '09

24 hours ago, i gave a scenario which would have been valid if prices had stayed below pivot level (1093), and i unfortunately didn't find the time to provide a midday report.

The 1093 breakout, which in fact could have been suspected from opposite forces in TF, allowed traders to score a few points on the way up, to reach the 50% Fib level. Shorter time frames (which are basically useless to readers after a few hours) point for some further test of 1100 and even possibly 1105, but energy is minimal right now.
The situation is still pretty messy on longer time frames, and buyers should eventually let go even if the current situation can last until ... early Jan!

TF bounced for a second time on Fib level (588), but shows signs of a continued congestion with mild conflicting forces: 60mins, slightly down, daily slightly up, and weekly still in preparation for a retracement. Note that entropy is losing stamina there. As a reminder, entropy is "dual mode": it works in momentum mode around the average, and as a tensor (e.g. an elastic) near extremes.

EURUSD is looking for support on 1.471 or in the 1.468 area where it could bounce briskly. There are however signs of an imminent breakout either way (at this very time).

( posted 7:10 AM UK )