cf SPY post below
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 6th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction: obvious
Position (daily): play price erosion or congestion with lower bias
Wasn't bearish enough yesterday on RUT. It was visible a peak was near but I couldn't make out whether RUT would congest or fall even if it became obvious as the day went by, hence the advantage for users to switch to lower time frames in time of indecision.
NB: I'LL BE LEAVING THE OFFICE AT UNEARTHLY HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AND SHALL ONLY BE BACK SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MIGHT THEREFORE BE NO SNAPSHOT TOMORROW, AND THERE WON'T BE SNAPSHOTS ON FRIDAY.
60mins: clear bearish reversal
SPY is now on its way to test lows again. MTFS is looking south, so is Entropy. However EntBin at -5 could make next Entropy bottom a reversal point. By then, Entropy will have given us a clearer pattern in oversold teritory.
Levels: MM trading range level (1st level above/under pivot level) gives a support just above 134, i.e. close to Fib PR1 level. There is some potential to test the next lower levels though (132, down to 125 eventually).
Daily: peak but no free fall for now
I've been repeating over & over that the MTFS line crossover was not looking good, impeding any serious chance of recovery. SPY has now peaked as expected. However one should not jump to conclusions just yet as MTFS lines look up, so does Entropy. A support level should be found on Fib or MM level, and by then a clearer pattern will emerge to give clues on direction.
Weekly: bottom?
Despite the MTFS white line 'hooking up' slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, and we're still aiming at a cup&handle or W pattern formation... or worse.
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