Market Outlook RUT for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily (15 and 30mins are leading).

Swings: DN-DN-DN

Market direction: mildly down to down.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: Down, looking for support, 797, 781, then...

Resistance at 828, also stall level at lower time frames proved strong enough to halt the bull run. All patterns are now much clearer, and point definitely lower. However, one should not panic yet, and check levels carefully. 797 may hold although it is unlikely. Fib target is 791.

Daily: Congestion with upward bias - trading range.

Yesterday's comments were pretty valid, with however a clearer downward bias. The trading range is: [797-828] within a larger one [781-843].

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP

Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames

Swings: DN-DN-UP

Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: looking for support, around 150 first.

The MTFS pattern is now clearer, and should develop until lines join again. It may be lower than 150, but it is not quite visible yet.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.

There seems to be a Fib expansion pattern forming, but the MTFS is not very bearish, hence the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.

Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 2nd '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily

Swings: DN-UP-UP

Market direction: still mildly up.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: Down until support is found around 2190 first.

As mentioned yesterday, when there are wild swings particularly after a Fed announcement, lower time frames take the lead, and had a stall level at 2238 which proved quite strong.Profit taking is perfectly in order, and we now have to check for support. MTFS is slightly bearish so there is a chance it goes lower than 2190. No Panic though, as NDX may just gather more strength to reach 2250 later on (possible Fib development).

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.

This one-day correction is certainly not alarming yet. There is no indication of a change in trend.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.

Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.