Market Update - Jun 30th '09

Strange situation yesterday confirming that one should not be fooled by the apparent calm of this trading range. End of term window dressing among portfolio managers maybe...

ES tested 906 (907.25 to be exact), TF had a spike almost hitting 500 to then reach stall level again. One could now be led to think that markets should start taking short term profits again on top of the trading range (Fib pattern already visible with the same target on key 500 level). There is nevertheless still some potential to aim a little higher first.

We therefore change our immediate scenario for 926-930 target (Fib level) on the 60mins chart. We are still in a configuration eventually pointing towards a pivot point and a return to ~900 but we have to admit selling pressure is very low right now.

Today we'll watch out for a possible channel breakout on the 60mins chart, otherwise wait for the next pivot in the 926 area. On TF, it seems that it may unconvincingly reach 512 (or 516?) but we first have to wait patiently for that next pivot to be confirmed and to align with our longer term scenario.

My 2-cents for the day are again not to read between the bars. The bearish Fib pattern is starting to show, the weekly chart is ready to fall, but the 60mins charts shows positive energy still, so patience is always a virtue.

( posted 6:40 AM UK )