Market update - Mar 12th '09

Prices behaved as expected yesterday with some momentum left for ES to reach reach 730 and ER (TF) 374.50 close to our target 375 for the day.
If stops have been moved up as we always do in such case, this last run must have been pretty good.

Now ES is slightly retracing, with a moderate retracement potential to PR1 (703) first. The market is actually stalling right now but we'll have to watch price behaviour closely as energy comes back in. Although not visible yet, retracement could take prices all the way down to the bottom of the price segment (high 680s) which is a salient Fib + MM level. It must be noted however that on the Daily chart, signs of an early, bumpy recovery stat showing.

ER displays similar patterns, and we'll watch for Fib levels there. The 1st Fib retracement pattern is already hit in the low 360s. ER (TF) could settle for a lower support level (357? 352?) but more interesting maybe is that here too, signs of a possible turnaround on the daily chart start showing. One may wait for a better entry point, but one should start thinking of trying a long soon with a stop just before lows (the more conservative ones should wait for confirmation early next week though).

( posted 2 AM UK )