cf. SPY post below for guidance
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Apr 28th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Cycles: not a good fit, but low frequency detected
Market Direction (daily): congestion to upper bias
Position (60mins): flat looking for long entry point
SPY bounced on resistance level (tested for support) to now reach range highs again, exactly as anticipated on last SPY post. What next now?
As a note, the last EURUSD post really came spot on as the breakout occurred that same day. We will keep an eye on it as EURUSD is back on the key level and could actually go lower, impacting all other markets starting with crude oil.
60mins: upper bias but hesitation at range highs
SPY is trying to go higher, only stopped by a 1st Fib target and range highs. MTFS looks overbought yet positive, but Entropy is lacking energy to breakout right now. Despite this hesitation, going higher remains the most likely scenario though.
Daily: congestion to upper bias
SPY is now back to year-to-date highs, but could well go higher. MTFS is pointing higher yet SPY could also first find support on MM pivot level (137.50). In such case SPY would aim at the 50% retracement level at 141.70. The MTFS pattern does not however indicate a straight path to 150 but the bias is UP overall.
Weekly: aiming higher
MTFS lines are certainly pointing higher but the pattern itself is not a recovery pattern. In most cases, this kind of pattern announces a retracement at some point. Now that the PR1 Fib level is passed, this may happen on the 50% Fib level or higher, and looking at previous support levels, testing 137.50 could set a strong base going forward.
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