Volatile in a way, but also looking slightly better now

With derivatives expiring today, lots of positions are being squared, cutting losses, rolling over contracts etc... this is routine circuitry in the markets, almost independent of on-going dynamics.

We however have some new information coming from lower time frames even if the longer term outlook is about the same. I remind readers that this public blog is reserved to mid to long term scenarios (i.e. few days to few weeks). I do also provide "trader's notes" several times a day to a selected few intraday traders.

Yesterday, the message was, based on Wed's closing prices, that the fall could halt on current levels, or last Friday's lows or ... about 20% lower. Some are confused by such comment, but a support level remains a support level until broken! Short time frames gave a bounce potential on stall level indicating a short term reversal was possible. This however does not mean the overall trend has changed.
I'll therefore stick to a mid to long outlook commentary with some short term info to adjust your current positions.

EURUSD: Some congestion with a confirmation that the 1.343 level should hold now, so a slight upward bias is there. This is still not the 'spark' we are still waiting for. In fact EURUSD must crawl back to 1.364 before we see significant energy coming back.

ER: Taking above comments in consideration, it seems 500 was indeed the key level for now. ER is now looking slightly better, but should stay volatile at least until middle of next week. For now, still no Long signal on the daily chart.

ES: Same story here, except that the 60 mins chart is particularly easy to follow hence one may be even more tempted to trade short time frames. On a longer term outlook, we see 875 holding the way as the 500 level for ER, so despite no strong recovery potential just yet we may see a continuation of the hangover period for a while.

The important levels will be 1000 for ES, and 625 for ER, not only passed but also tested for support. I wouldn't venture telling when this could happen... it can take 2 days to 2 weeks! Mid next week...?