Friday, November 02, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 2nd '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

I have mentioned again and again we were hovering around a key level with Swing indicators oscillating too often. Obviously it is not easy to pinpoint exactly when it will happen with a daily update, and lower intraday time frames have helped a lot.

60mins: looking for support, around 150 first.
The MTFS pattern is now clearer, and should develop until lines join again. It may be lower than 150, but it is not quite visible yet.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.
There seems to be a Fib expansion pattern forming, but the MTFS is not very bearish, hence the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.