Saturday, October 27, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 29th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion.

Note: Swings are back UP, but this indicates we are close to a key level. Thursday's Down indication could very well be a warning, as the Swing indicator is very reactive. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy, yet one should avoid any wishful thinking as it is not visible on the charts just yet.

60mins: congestion to upward bias.
The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. We reached the high end of that range, which is also bumping on 'stall' level. Since there is still an upward bias, we'll have to watch this level carefully. If this level is passed, NDX will obviously aim for 2250.
Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding very well, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs).

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight until it peaks.