cf. RUT post below
Friday, February 29, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 29th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins and weekly charts
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: not quite reliable (good turning points but low signal-to-noise ratio)
Market Direction: none, lower bias still
Position (60mins): flat - delta neutral
Options: March iron condor in place
Short Mar790 Calls, Long Mar800 Calls, Long Mar600 Puts, Short Mar610 Puts (one could also be negative delta)
Again RUT is behaving like a charm, went up to MM pivot level and is retracing a bit. Uncertainty in the market keeps it in a trading range for the time being, with a few short term buyers and still a lot of long term sellers.
60mins: modest retracement. check levels at 702 & possibly lower
RUT's retracement is just the continuation of the same trading range. Cycles are actually giving us good turning points, but we shall remain cautious with them since there is a lot of noise in prices at the moment. The MTFS shape does not indicate RUT going much lower for now, but Entropy is steadily down. We will look at fib retracement levels for possible support.
For those of you trading the 60mins chart, i would be short with particular caution on fib levels and cycle turning point. The noise level would probably make me switch to a 30mins chart or lower (10 and 15mins charts look great).
Daily: same trading range, but slight upper bias emerging
Significance level remains fairly low at this time frame. MTFS remains flat and Entropy is not helping us either. There is no reason to be particularly bullish right now, as RUT could still go either way. Despite the last 2 down days, the bias remains slightly up, yet not strong enough to toggle the Swing indicator to UP.
In absence of a market shock (exogenous factor impacting the market) it could take at least another few days for a new pattern to materialise. Until then RUT should fluctuate within a possible range: [688-719] to max [680-730].
Weekly: congestion - possible pause in current down move
As mentioned last time, we are now having a pause in this bear market, with the MTFS white line hooking up. It should not be strong enough to justify a strong recovery but the white/brown lines crossover may indicate an interruption of the fall.
625 was a strong support (688 in lower dominant time frame), as 1750 was on NDX, so the market is probably showing willingness to stay above those levels. Having said that, we have to see the end of the pattern now with the green line joining the party close to oversold levels, either after a further drop (less likely now) or just through the passage of time (higher probability).
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for Feb 28th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, then Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): directionless
Position (60mins): same March condor until expiration. April position should be entered next week.
On last report 3 trading days ago, I mentioned that the rise would have little momemtum, and we are again hovering around the top of the trading range (~1800s). What to expect now?
60mins: losing steam but upward bias is still there
MTFS shows lines with positive gradients, but one can see that the white line is losing momemtum before reaching overbought level. The green line will probably catch up but in the meantime, this is generally indicative of congestion, mild retracement even if the background trend remains somewhat up. Entropy confirms that scenario.
NDX will probably try and reach pivot level again, and who knows... a breakout situation may finally bring new players and take NDX to higher levels, at least at this time frame, i.e. in the short term.
Daily: nothing new really...
No change from last post: MTFS and Entropy do still point towards a congestion at this low level. Obviously, a market pattern may be forming (we've had higher lows and lower highs) so one will watch for a possible breakout over the next few days. One cannot discard an upward breakout, since 1750 is so strong.
Weekly: again decidedly bearish for now, but 1750 support still looks like it could hold
No change from last post:
Indeed no reason to be very optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and there is always a chance that 1750 will hold if things slow down a little *, particularly if the white line reaches oversold level, where NDX could bounce at least momentarily.
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640.
* MTFS has some built-in momentum and can reach oversold level as time simply goes by, instead of only following price action. This means that a congestion at this low level may complete the pattern more or less the same way as a market fall would.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 27th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market Direction: look for confirmation of a breakout on the upside, still relatively unconvincing though, so would remain flat or non directional.
SPY shot up past the strong MM resistance level, and could quite go a little higher or at least remain in the high 130s, which seem to be a very important test level going forward.
60mins: breakout attempt
SPY tested the strong MM resistance (137.50) then the 1st Fib target (138.18), but it is not quite clear what comes next.
Entropy is cooling down but remains high, and MTFS also points for prices to remain in the high 130s for now, without necessarily going higher.
Daily: testing high of trading range
Whereas one sees momentum picking up on the 60mins chart, this is still only the top of the trading range here. SPY could certainly reach 140 soon, but MTFS and Entropy are still indicative of some indecision.
Weekly: bottom?
While MTFS and Entropy remain both relatively bearish, we noticed the MTFS white line announcing a pause which actually turned to a retracement to Fib PR1 (38.2%).
These levels around 138 to 140 seem important on all 3 time frames, so we shall remain careful. Overall no indication of much optimism just yet, so caution should be exercised even if all current bars are blue and 2 out of 3 Swings are up.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 26th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins and weekly charts
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Cycles: not quite reliable (good turning points but low signal-to-noise ratio)
Market Direction: none, lower bias still
Position (60mins): flat - delta neutral
Options: March iron condor in place
Short Mar790 Calls, Long Mar800 Calls, Long Mar600 Puts, Short Mar610 Puts
RUT report 3 trading days ago was right. RUT is indeed aiming at pivot level while remaining in the same trading range overall. Absolute bliss for non directional traders...
This report is updated on the 60mins time frame, but remains more or less the same on longer horizons.
60mins: pivot level now in sight
RUT will most probably test pivot level just short of 720, yet there is nothing really new in this market so i would venture into a longer term outlook for now.
Entropy is still pretty weak, and there's even a chance of stalling around 715 in the short term.
Daily: same trading range
Significance level remains fairly low at this time frame. MTFS remains flat and Entropy is not helping us either. There is no reason to be particularly bullish right now, as RUT could still go either way. For the time being, with swings being UP-UP-DN, the bias is obviously UP.
In absence of a market shock (exogenous factor impacting the market) it could take at least another few days for a new pattern to materialise. Until then RUT should fluctuate within a possible broader range: [680-730]
Weekly: congestion - possible pause in current down move
As mentioned last time, we are now having a pause in this bear market, with the MTFS white line hooking up. It should not be strong enough to justify a strong recovery but the white/brown lines crossover may indicate an interruption of the fall.
625 was a strong support (688 in lower dominant time frame), as 1750 was on NDX, so the market is probably showing willingness to stay above those levels. Having said that, we have to see the end of the pattern now with the green line joining the party close to oversold levels, either after a further drop or just through the passage of time.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for Feb 25th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, then Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): wait for bounce confirmation on 60mins before rejoicing...
Position (60mins): could reinforce March put spreads around 1640 if 1750 level holds
60mins: nice bounce but...
what's coming next now that 1750 has been tested all day on Friday? The target was most obvious and most would have taken profits on such strong support level. If you look at previous posts, this is the last defense line before a bear market, and buyers have been waiting there, hence the late recovery.
Does this change the market configuration? Not quite. MTFS is not showing a crossover in oversold territory that would be indicative of a recovery. Entropy is picking up indeed but still has a bit of bearish tone to it.
One should not expect much more of a recovery once the momentum of such sudden impulse has evaporated.
NB: the Up swing is generally not stable when the angle is over twice the natural angle of repose, yet this is a leading indicator, so one shall look for confirmation, and its angle may come to a more natural rise by then.
Daily: nothing new really...
MTFS and Entropy do still point towards a congestion at this low level. Obviously, a market pattern may be forming (pennant) so one will watch for a possible breakout over the next few days. One cannot discard an upward breakout, since 1750 is so strong.
Weekly: (copy/paste from last post:) again decidedly bearish for now, but support could hold
Indeed no reason to be optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and one should not discard that there is always a chance that 1750 will hold if things slow down a little *, particularly if the white line reaches oversold level, where NDX could bounce at least momentarily.
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640.
* MTFS has some built-in momentum and can reach oversold level as time simply goes by, instead of only following price action. This means that a congestion at this low level may complete the pattern more or less the same way as a market fall would.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 22nd '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market Direction: possible pause or price erosion in the short to medium term. Testing 125 or stall level at high 120s is more than likely.
Was right yesterday on RUT, yet volatility remains suprising sometimes. Levels do work as (strange) attractors, then price behaviour changes when hit. Obviously, it is interesting to switch to lower time frames, for those of you running the toolset.
Back to SPY: same trading range, i.e. true happiness for non directional options traders... The following commentary is here quite similar to the previous one 3 trading days ago.
60mins: no change but...
One cannot discard a breakout situation, particularly on the downside. MTFS does not exhibit any clear pattern, no (new) fib pattern, and weak Entropy... so since the overall bias is down, one will favour a return to previous lows around 132.20 (previous Fib target).
Daily: trading range but...
beware of a volatility slowdown as a breakout can happen either way in the coming days. The bias is still down so one should favour a new test of recent lows.
MTFS is not helping at the moment, nor Entropy which is remarkably weak. Significance level is low, so one may have to pay more attention the 30 and 60 mins charts to get a better perception of market dynamics.
Weekly: bottom?
Again, despite the MTFS white line hooking up slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a relatively bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, at least until the pattern is complete (line crossover and/or green line in oversold territory). This could help the formation of a a cup&handle or W pattern... or go lower although still unlikely at this stage.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 21st '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, but weekly chart also.
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Cycles: unreliable yet again
Market Direction: none, lower bias still
Position (60mins): flat - delta neutral
Options: March iron condor in place
Short Mar790 Calls, Long Mar800 Calls, Long Mar600 Puts, Short Mar610 Puts
Less than a 20 point range over the last few days. RUT is trying to go north, in an overall environment that remains fairly bearish.
60mins: could test pivot level
MTFS shows capacity to reach ans test target level (MM pivot & Fib target) just below 720. We can notice that 688 also turned to stronger support. Does that mean our market woes are over? Too early to say. Indeed we did not get a clear bounce pattern and Entropy remains pretty weak. So while the bias is up for now, there might be further hesitation going forward.
Daily: same trading range
Significance level is now quite low at this time frame. MTFS remains flat and Entropy is not helping us either. There is no reason to be particularly bullish right now, as RUT could still go either way.
In absence of a market shock it could take a few days for a new pattern to materialise.
Weekly: congestion - possible pause in current down move
As mentioned last time, we are now having a pause in this bear market, with the MTFS white line hooking up. It should not be strong enough to justify a strong recovery but the white/brown lines crossover may indicate an interruption of the fall.
625 was a strong support (688 in lower dominant time frame), as 1750 was on NDX, so the market is probably showing willingness to stay above those levels. Having said that, we have to see the end of the pattern now with the green line joining the party close to oversold levels, either after a further drop or just through the passage of time.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Market Snapshot for RUT - Feb 20th 2008
cf. NDX post below
For some odd reason, last Friday's (Feb 15th) postings do no longer appear on this site... No need to post them again now, but in any case, apologies for the inconvenience.
Market Outlook NDX for Feb 20th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, then Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): on its way to 1750 as expected
Position (60mins): non directional with lower bias.
60mins: obvious
The MTFS pattern was pretty clear until the suprising open yesterday. NDX however quickly resumed its course, now even showing an even clearer Fib pattern, with a 1750 target.
Entropy is pretty week however, so one cannot anticipate volatility or the kind of landing to expect on that level.
Daily: bearish tone
MTFS and Entropy do point towards a congestion at this low level. Now that 1750 is around the corner, we have to see how it will be tested for guidance on forthcoming market direction. For the time being, it seems it can only go lower.
Weekly: again decidedly bearish for now, but support could hold
Indeed no reason to be optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and one should not discard that there is always a chance that 1750 will hold if things slow down a little *, particularly if the white line reaches oversold level, where NDX could bounce at least momentarily.
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640.
* MTFS has some built-in momentum and can reach oversold level as time simply goes by, instead of only following price action. This means that a congestion at this low level may complete the pattern more or less the same way as a market fall would.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 19th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, with Daily weakening
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction: possible pause or price erosion in the short to medium term. Testing 125 or stall level at high 120s is more than likely.
No major change since last SPY post. SPY went up a little, down a little, and remains directionless in the short term.
60mins: congestion with slight upper bias
MTFS does not exhibit any clear pattern, and is indictative of a possible trading range. We will however watch Fib patterns developing upward or downward depending on pivots. The late recovery on friday is not affecting the Swing indicator yet, so we would favour a target down (132.20 then possibly lower). This will take a few days to materialise anyway.
Daily: trading range but...
beware of a volatility slowdown as a breakout can happen either way in the coming days. The bias is still down so one should favour a new test of recent lows.
MTFS is not helping at the moment, nor Entropy which is remarkably weak. Significance level is low, so one may have to pay more attention the 30 and 60 mins charts to get a better perception of market dynamics.
Weekly: bottom?
Again, despite the MTFS white line hooking up slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a relatively bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, at least until the pattern is complete (line crossover and/or green line in oversold territory). This could help the formation of a a cup&handle or W pattern... or go lower although still unlikely at this stage.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 14th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, but weekly chart also.
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable yet again
Market Direction: none, lower bias still
Position (60mins): flat - delta neutral
Options: March iron condor in place
Short Mar790 Calls, Long Mar800 Calls, Long Mar600 Puts, Short Mar610 Puts
We had the turnaround given by cycle indicator on the 60mins chart. It is supposed to be a risky indicator, but can be quite useful too.
Yesterday, we have been surprised by the strength of the upward move. The Swing indicator was certainly already up, but in this overall bearish environment, i thought the resistance would hold. The long term scenario remains the same though.
60mins: good upward momentum now
Gap at open was not anticipated. Some exogenous shock (economic news) changed the dynamics slightly.
MTFS is now looking good, so recovery could technically take RUT to previous highs, and eventually all the way to 750. Entropy is not looking bad either and can sustain momentum a little further.
However the MM and Fib targets (~719) have not been passed clearly yet, so one should be careful not to be over-bullish too quickly.
Daily: same trading range
No big change at this level. We are in the same trading range, with no clear MTFS pattern and a weak Entropy. Despite this momentary reprieve, one shall watch mid to high 730s (i.e. recent highs, if hit again that it) carefully for clues on market direction.
Weekly: congestion - possible pause in down move
As mentioned last time, we are now having a pause in this bear market, with the MTFS white line hooking up. It should not be strong enough to justify a strong recovery but the white/brown lines crossover may indicate an interruption of the fall.
650 was a strong support, as 1750 was on NDX, so the market is probably showing willingness to stay above those levels. Having said that, we have to see the end of the pattern now with the green line joining the party close to oversold levels.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for Feb 13th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion with upper bias
Position (60mins): if long for a few days, profits would have been taken yesterday. Most would now stay flat, but also a few points to grab on the way down.
Keeping a few call spreads is always a good idea. The more adventurous will place March put spreads in the mid 1600s.
60mins: end of up retracement
Patterns are pretty clear at this level. NDX retraced up to Fib PR2 (61.8%) and also hit a MM level. The dominant trend being down in higher time frames, this was a quite logical profit target. Now, quite a few would be short again, however the MTFS green line is a little higher, thus dampening the tension on the white line. Entropy and MTFS lines show a modest downward bias, hence one can see a possible test of the 1750 level again (which would be a PR2 retracement again!).
Daily: support confirmed and probably tested again shortly
MTFS and Entropy do point towards a congestion at this low level. There is no indication of much negative pressure left, so buyers may come back around 1750 over the next few days. For the time being, let see how things develop when this happens.
Weekly: decidedly bearish for now, but support could hold
Indeed no reason to be optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and one should not discard that there is always a chance that 1750 will hold if things slow down a little *, particularly if the white line reaches oversold level, where NDX could bounce at least momentarily.
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640.
* MTFS has some built-in momentum and can reach oversold level as time simply goes by, instead of only following price action. This means that a congestion at this low level may complete the pattern more or less the same way as a market fall would.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 11th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, with Daily weakening
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction: down in the longer term, price erosion or congestion with lower bias in the short term
No major change since last SPY post. There is however a feeling the fall may be over. It could be a deceptive impression even if volatility has indeed momentarily come down.
60mins: congestion with slight upper bias
SPY has tested 132 and bounced back a little. There is no energy to take it much higher right now. One shall also notice MM strong support level is now on 137.50, and trading range is now considerably reduced, with a strong support level unchanged at 125.
Most likely outlook is congestion with a very slight upper bias that could eventually take SPY to a PR1 Fib retracement around 134.50 but that remains to be seen...
Daily: continuation of slow erosion for now
The scenario has hardly changed. Recovery failed, and SPY is now slowly coming down. There is little energy either way though. One will keep in mind the MM and Fib targets. SPY could eventually reach a first Fib target just below 130.
Significance level is falling, so one will need to take cues from lower time frames, even in the unlikely event of a Fib pattern emerging north (low:126, high:140, Ret:132)
Weekly: bottom?
Despite the MTFS white line 'hooking up' slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, and we're still aiming at a cup&handle or W pattern formation... or worse.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 11th '08
Dominant TF: weekly chart taking over, otherwise 30mins.
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: dominant cycle 126bars pointing down, possible turnaround in about 10 to 15 bars (60mins chart), but confirmation will be needed as it is always the least reliable indicator
Market Direction: none, lower bias still
Position (60mins): flat - delta neutral
Options (since Jan 9th) : Short Feb790 Call, Long Feb800 Call,Long Feb650 Put, Short Feb660 Put. Put spread is relatively safe.
60mins: lower bias
RUT does not show any recovery potential right now. MTFS is still weak and Entropy shows no 'steam' at the moment. Significance level is pretty low, so one should take cues at lower time frames if one is looking for an entry or exit point. Otherwise the most likelt scenario remains continuation of price erosion.
Daily: congestion with lower bias
No change in scenario. There is a feeling that the worst is over for now, but certainly no optimism in the market just yet. Significance level is also dropping, so one should remain cautious.
Weekly: possible pause in down move
It's been a long time since the weekly chart was last the dominant time frame. While the trend remains down here, the MTFS line crossover may indicate a pause. We also see Entropy tempting a recovery. One should therefore not anticipate any substantial fall in the short term. However, no recovery either until the pattern is complete.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Market Snapshot for RUT - Feb 7th 2008
cf. NDX post below as well as previous RUT post
UNFORTUNATELY NO POST TOMORROW... I KNOW YOU ARE GOING TO MISS IT IN THIS MAD MARKET OF OURS... WELL, AT LEAST THE CHARTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY EASY TO READ LATELY, SO NO BIG SURPRISE TO EXPECT.
SEE YOU MONDAY!
Market Outlook NDX for Feb 7th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion with upper bias
Position (60mins): to be on the safe side, would take profits, but otherwise short. Keeping a few call spreads is always a good idea. The more adventurous will place put spreads in the low 1600s.
The rate cut is history now, and the market has resumed its course...
NB: NO SNAPSHOT TOMORROW
60mins: bearish, but strong support level
MTFS lines are still a little bearish so is Entropy which is low and not showing signes of recovery yet. 1750 is a strong support level though, so even if one cannot anticipate clearly the amount of fighting for this level, there is no strong indication it will break at least over the next day or so, even if it can be momentarily penetrated.
Daily: support confirmed but...
OK, the scenario has been described over and over, and we're there now testing 1750 again. The level is now weaker than a few days ago, indicating NDX could go much lower. For the time being, one should not read more than it is visible from the chart and Entropy while not great is not very low. So the level is likely to be fought, and there could be some congestion at this low level over the next few days.
Weekly: bearish
Indeed no reason to be optimistic here. One shall check MM and Fib levels carefully. Do not discard that there is always a chance that 1750 will hold. It is the last defense line before we enter a bear market... Next support level would be 1640.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Feb 6th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction: obvious
Position (daily): play price erosion or congestion with lower bias
Wasn't bearish enough yesterday on RUT. It was visible a peak was near but I couldn't make out whether RUT would congest or fall even if it became obvious as the day went by, hence the advantage for users to switch to lower time frames in time of indecision.
NB: I'LL BE LEAVING THE OFFICE AT UNEARTHLY HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AND SHALL ONLY BE BACK SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MIGHT THEREFORE BE NO SNAPSHOT TOMORROW, AND THERE WON'T BE SNAPSHOTS ON FRIDAY.
60mins: clear bearish reversal
SPY is now on its way to test lows again. MTFS is looking south, so is Entropy. However EntBin at -5 could make next Entropy bottom a reversal point. By then, Entropy will have given us a clearer pattern in oversold teritory.
Levels: MM trading range level (1st level above/under pivot level) gives a support just above 134, i.e. close to Fib PR1 level. There is some potential to test the next lower levels though (132, down to 125 eventually).
Daily: peak but no free fall for now
I've been repeating over & over that the MTFS line crossover was not looking good, impeding any serious chance of recovery. SPY has now peaked as expected. However one should not jump to conclusions just yet as MTFS lines look up, so does Entropy. A support level should be found on Fib or MM level, and by then a clearer pattern will emerge to give clues on direction.
Weekly: bottom?
Despite the MTFS white line 'hooking up' slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, and we're still aiming at a cup&handle or W pattern formation... or worse.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Feb 5th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins taking over, Daily declining
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: upward retracement on downward dominant trend
Position (60mins): looking for long exit point
60mins: peak?
RUT hasn't done too badly this last few days, with the 688 pivot level tested twice giving the rebound more vigor. RUT is however now lacking steam to go much higher. Having said that this MTFS+Entropy configuration is not the easiest to read, so we'll give the up Swing the benefit of the doubt and opt for a very mild upward bias. From a level point of view, the resistance could be around current mid 720s at least for now.
Daily: upward retracement
Despite the Swing remaining decidedly down, retracement has proven stronger than anticipated. While not overly convincing, MTFS and Entropy are positive, so RUT may even reach the low to mid 740s. This is in no way a return to a bull trend though, and RUT may slow down and congest a little.
Weekly: back to lows...?
The Fed cut shifted the scenario upward by 50 to 70 points but no real change in current outlook. Certainly a bit of a reprieve at the moment but it is only if 750 is broken with assurance that we could envisage the end of the current correction. For the time being, while Entropy is looking slightly better, MTFS is still quite bearish.
Monday, February 04, 2008
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