cf. NDX post below for guidance.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for May 30th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower TFs!)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): long to flat (profit taking)
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to upper bias
I hope some of you scored again on indications given yesterday (EURUSD target, SPY target) which could hardly be more accurate.
60mins: upper bias looking for resistance level.
MTFS has about finished its pattern, but there is some remaining upward momentum. Resistance level should now come either on current levels or eventually close to highs hit on May 19th. MM levels have changed, offering more room for NDX to rise. Having said that this move is happening too fast, and stall level is now, strange coincidence, exactly on May 19th highs.
Daily: upper bias but possible congestion
MTFS is showing congestion potential near highs, i.e. near completion of the pattern. Entropy is also weakening fast. May highs will probably be hit again soon, but it is not clear whether they can be passed in the short term.
EURUSD aiming at lower 1.54 first and possible 1.536.
Weekly: Congestion at key level, upper bias remaining.
No major change at this level:
The Fib/MM levels have been slowing down the seemingly irresistible ascension back to former highs. MTFS is still somewhat bullish and Entropy has not peaked yet. NDX may eventually keep hovering around the 2000 / 2010 level for a while, but until MTFS and Entropy actually confirm the slowdown, we will assume a "cautious" positive bias going forward.
Again, i wish to emphacise this is a key level as Fib patterns can develop both ways here, even if a downturn definitely looks unlikely.
Pivot number 4 (2050) could indeed turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1700), or could still be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again the cautiously bullish scenario is still favoured for now and confirmation should come within weeks. Since this is not the dominant time frames, clues will certainly arise from lower time frame indicators.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Market Snapshot for NDX - May 29th 2008
cf. SPY post below for guidance. We however certainly take note of specific 2000 level. NDX may reach 2010 in the short term.
Market Outlook SPY for May 29th '08
Dominant TF: Daily, closely followed by the ther 2 TFs.
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Cycles: still unreliable
Market Direction (daily): Congestion
Position (60mins): flat to long.
On SPY post, I gave support level almost to the tick (137.53). Sometimes markets are easy... We now see some recovery, also visible on other markets. Again, €/$ and oil prices will have to be watched closely.
We have a target of 1.556 then ~1.551 for EURUSD
60mins: recovery to Fib PR1
MTFS is showing moderate recovery potential most likely to PR1 (140.09). However this kind of recovery pattern generally retraces and Entropy is quite weak, so no rush to go long at this time frame (switch to 30mins or lower to grab up to 1/2 point).
Daily: congestion to minor retracement
Again, one should not more than range trading to possible congestion. MTFS and Entropy both show a slight downward bias so we should stay around the bottom of the current range for now. Support at lower boundary (137.50) should hold, and the overall upward trend is still valid over the medium term.
Weekly: recovery is losing steam
No real change from last post. We anticipated this current slowdown which brought SPY back to PR1 around 137.35. This level should hold.
Congestion is therefore likely in the short term. However since we never got full MTFS pattern completion in oversold territory, we will keep a close look at possible formation of new pivot point and next Fib pattern going forward. Although unlikely at the moment, this kind of configuration can also turn around to a down Fib pattern.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 28th '08
Dominant TF: all 3
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Cycles: frequency detected, but poor fit
Market Direction: congestion to upper bias.
Position (60mins): long to flat
Options (RUT): no change
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.
The upward retracement mentioned yesterday was actually a little stronger than anticipated, possibly on account of the long weekend.
About ER2, we also gave the 719 support level on last post. We're now back to pivot level... what next?
60mins: upper bias
MTFS gives some minor upper bias, however we have no clear recovery pattern. Entropy is also quite weak. Some upward momentum is defintely there after a strong day like yesterday, so ER2 may try and crawl back to latest highs. One doesn't however see how ER2 will get there without new energy (exogenous factor like a positive economic news or rising US$)
Daily: congestion, up trend still valid.
Weakening Entropy and undecisive MTFS point towards some congestion. ER2 will probably have a go at 750 again soon, but like on the 60mins chart ER2 is unlikely to pass that test level without some positive exogenous force driving it.
The picture may get clearer later this week. In the meantime, theta is on the side of condor traders.
Weekly: congestion, possible retracement
Again, no change from last post:
While the upper bias is now obivous, the market is looking at pausing soon not only to better complete the MTFS pattern but to consolidate to eventually go higher later on. We will therefore keep a close eye on MM/Fib levels particularly the combination of the two in the lower 750s. Like in lower time frames, the MTFS pattern and the Entropy do not point for a return to the bullish trend yet, so again, it is likely that a retracement or consolidation will be necessary.
We'll keep into consideration that this is a crucial phase as the pattern can reverse and on the contrary turn back to bearishness, test of last lows etc. We'll obviously have to first wait for the next pivot point and then the subsequent support level, and this can take up to a couple of months. We'll have plenty of time to come back to this in future posts.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for May 27th '08
Dominant TF: Daily & 60mins
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from UP-UP-UP : congestion area)
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): short to flat
Market Direction (Daily): congestion
Last post was correct in terms of direction but proved to be too conservative. When I said "support must be found lower, I expected 1985 to hold at least for a while. The market decided however to retrace 100% to erase all gains this month. This didnt in the least affect our positions.
Again, we will a close look on the €/$ rate and as well oil prices which definitely influence the markets'mood at the moment.
Columbus Day on Monday.
60mins: some minor downward bias but retracement is quite possible.
The MTFS in this situation can point towards congestion to a possible upward retracement. A middle of the road congestion with a very slight upward bias is the favoured scenario. The Swing pivot is not confirmed yet.
Daily: congestion to minor retracement
MTFS is not bearish even though lines are pointing down. The most likely scenario is a congestion to a possible minor retracement. Fib PR1 (38.2%) looks like retracement target but we'll rather watch for a possible bounce on channel lows first.
Weekly: Congestion at key level
I clearly warned of a possible peak on last NDX post 3 days ago. The Fib/MM levels indeed stopped the seemingly irresistible ascension back to former highs. Having said that, there is no major change in the configuration and while the bar turned yellow, MTFS is still moderately bullish and Entropy has not peaked yet. We will therefore at most favour a slowdown scenario for the time being, but NDX could well resume its rise later on. We will remain "positively cautious" at this time frame, and wait to see how NDX behaves here as this is a key level:
Pivot number 3 (2050) could indeed turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1700), or could be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again the cautiously bullish scenario is still favoured for now and confirmation should come within weeks. Since this is not the dominant time frames, clues will certainly arise from lower time frame indicators.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for May 23rd '08
Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly then followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: UP-UP-UP (60mins swing probably unstable)
Cycles: still unreliable
Market Direction (daily): congestion to minor upper bias overall. Volatile.
Position (60mins): short.
Yesterday was relatively quiet, but pressure on the $ could impact the markets again.
60mins: down
The pause we anticipated on last post proved to quicly turn into a substantial retracement at this time frame. MTFS is still looking bearish so SPY could reach 100% retracement around 138.50 which also close to MM stall level.
Daily: congestion to minor retracement
SPY is now congesting ahead of target level around 145/146. We will check channel lows for support. SPY could also retrace to 137.50 which happens to be MM + Fib PR1 (38.2%). This should not impact the up trend significantly overall.
Weekly: recovery is losing steam
While lower time frames point toward congestion or some retracement, the weekly time frame does not look too alrming. We know the current MTFS pattern has not completed in oversold territory so a pause is necessary in any case before going higher. As mentioned on last post: Over the longer term there is no evidence of a straight path to last year's highs.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 22nd '08
Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, 60mins dropping fast
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: congestion to very minor upper bias.
Position (60mins): flat to short
Options (RUT):
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.
On last ER2 post, i warned of the 60mins Swing being unstable and it indeed turned negative again. Yesterday, I also anticipated a lower support on NDX... but admittedly did not see such a down draft coming. The sudden bout of attack on the US$ and the seemingly unstoppable run on oil explains it all. Not sure when all this will end up...
60mins: looking for support
ER2 may have found support on or close to yesterday's lows (Fib target and MM stall level). MTFS points lower and Entropy is relatively strong so a lower bias is still valid so yesterday's lows to low 720s could be tested again.
Daily: congestion to minor lower bias, up trend still valid.
On last post, I said: "750 looks so close yet also looks so predictable that there could be significant program selling on or close to that level". It couldn't be more true. At this level however, we see nothing more than a congestion to a minor retracement for now. We will check channel lows for possible support.
Weekly: congestion, possible retracement
No change from last post:
While the upper bias is now obivous, the market is looking at pausing soon not only to better complete the MTFS pattern but to consolidate to eventually go higher later on. We will therefore keep a close eye on MM/Fib levels particularly the combination of the two in the lower 750s. Like in lower time frames, the MTFS pattern and the Entropy do not point for a return to the bullish trend yet, so again, it is likely that a retracement or consolidation will be necessary.
We'll keep into consideration that this is a crucial phase as the pattern can reverse and on the contrary turn back to bearishness, test of last lows etc. We'll obviously have to first wait for the next pivot point and then the subsequent support level, and this can take up to a couple of months. We'll have plenty of time to come back to this in future posts.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for May 21st '08
Dominant TF: Daily & 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): short to flat
Market Direction (Daily): congestion
The market retraced a little bit lower than anticipated to close more or less where expected (~142 for SPY). It is clear that the €/$ rate and oil prices are impacting the markets again.
60mins: support may be found lower
The 2000 level should be strong enough to hold, yet NDX could also test 1985. MTFS and Entropy are not the easiest to read at the moment, so we may enter a period of congestion until the situation clears up.
Daily: congestion to moderately up
Despite the obvious slowdown on current levels, MTFS only indicates congestion right now. The retracement potential is limited for the time being. Having said that, once the MTFS pattern is completed, the congestion could turn into moderate retracement to Fib level as EntBin is high and generally points to a turnaround.
Weekly: moderately up, possibly peaking
No change from last post:
This is not our dominant time frame, but we'll still read that the MTFS pattern points towards a peak probably at a MM/Fib level. We could also say that the Swing gradient is too steep (twice the natural angle of repose) so there is volatility affecting significance level at this level. A pause or retracement would therefore be healthy going forward.
What we've seen lately can maybe only a test of MM (2000) and Fib (2011) levels, so we may see a slowdown going forward. For the time being the bias is however still somewhat up. We'll just be a little cautious not to be too bullish too soon.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for May 20th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins and daily, closely followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: UP-UP-UP (hesitation at 60mins level)
Cycles: still unreliable
Market Direction (daily): upper bias overall but volatile.
Position (60mins): flat (too volatile at this time frame). Some will try and enter long on pullbacks around channel lows.
I warned about volatility and the bumpy road to 150, and this comment seems valid still. SPY hit the strong resistance level to then retrace a little.
60mins: volatile
MTFS is calling for a pause at this time frame, so a retracement to lower 142s is possible. Such retracement looks limited anyhow, and we may just see some congestion in the short to medium term.
Daily: upward bias.
MTFS was losing steam at the time of last post, but buyers came back after expiry day and MTFS looks like lines could finally reach overbought levels. SPY should reach 145/146 i.e. stall level in the medium term, and probably 150 later on, but again the volatility could make it a bumpy road.
Weekly: recovery looking for resistance level
Last post was too conservative on this time frame. Blue bars, increasing Entropy and positive MTFS line gradients should indeed indicate that resistance level will be a little higher. We should be now looking at PR2 (61.8%) level or maybe even 150 (less likely). Over the longer term there is no evidence of a straight path to last year's highs.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 19th '08
Dominant TF: all 3 !
Swings: UP-UP-UP (60mins swing unstable)
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: minor upper bias.
Position (60mins): flat, some would stay long, or move to lower time frames.
Options (RUT):
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.
I warned last time about short term volatility and
indeed the 60mins chart has proved to be a little erratic, even if the trading range has been constrained. Options have expired with a profit without adjusting a single ime. While we think June positions are safe, some may want to shift calls up a little.
Note: apologies for the typing mistakes on last ER2 post.
60mins: congestion to upper bias
No major difference from last post: ER2 should remain a little volatile even if May options are now history. We may again have another round or congestion or finally aim higher at 750. Stall level in high 740s has so far stopped ER2 from testing the major 750 resistance level, and while there is little energy in the market right now 734 has proved to be a strong support level.
Portfolio adjustments or economic news may finally make the market test 750.
Daily: congestion to minor upper bias
750 looks so close yet also looks so predictable that there could be significant program selling on or close to that level. There is some energy left in the market, therefore the resistance level is bound to be hit this week. We however do not have
the most bullish situation showing in MTFS so only ER2's behaviour on 750 can tell us how the pattern develops. For now it seems the resistance level will hold.
Weekly: congestion, possible retracement
While the upper bias is now obivous, the market is looking at pausing soon not only to better complete the MTFS pattern but to consolidate to eventually go higher later on. We will therefore keep a close eye on MM/Fib levels particularly the combination of the two in the lower 750s. Like in lower time frames, the MTFS pattern and the Entropy do not point for a return to the bullish trend yet, so again, it is likely that a retracement or consolidation will be necessary.
We'll keep into consideration that this is a crucial phase as the pattern can reverse and on the contrary turn back to bearishness, test of last lows etc. We'll obviously have to first wait for the next pivot point and then the subsequent support level, and this can take up to a couple of months. We'll have plenty of time to come back to this in future posts.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for May 16th '08
Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): long
Market Direction (Daily): up
The market shot up through the 2000 mark. It is a bit of a surprise as we expected more of a resistance at this level. 2000 has even been tested for support, so it can indeed go higher now. Having said that, there are adjustments triggered by derivatives expiry.
60mins: up
MTFS is bullish yet Entropy is not so strong so we may have a quieter end of the week. We do notice however that the trading range seems to have shifted upward, so we can assume (at this time frame) that 2000 is now a support level.
Daily: up
Bars are blue, MM resistance level moved up, so it seems that 2000 will soon be history. There is feeling the market can indeed go higher now with MTFS on a steady bullish pattern. We'll just follow MTFS lines until they join in oversold territory. Lines are only moderately bullish so there is very little chance we see a runaway bull trend back to former highs. The market should pause at a MM/Fib level we shall determine over the next few days.
Weekly: moderately up
This is not our dominant time frame, but we'll still read that the MTFS pattern points towards a peak probably at a MM/Fib level. We could also say that the Swing gradient is too steep (twice the natural angle of repose) so there is volatility affecting significance level at this level. A pause of retracement would therefore be healthy going forward.
What we've seen lately can maybe only a test of MM (2000) and Fib (2011) levels, so we may see a slowdown going forward. For the time being the bias is however still up. We'll just be a little cautious not to be too bullish too soon.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Market Snapshot for NDX - May 15th 2008
We'll keep a close look at the 2000 resistance level on NDX as it could impact the overall market. Otherwice cf. SPY post below for details.
Market Outlook SPY for May 15th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins, but also weekly and daily charts.
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Cycles: still unreliable
Market Direction (daily): congestion/retracement but upper bias still overall
Position (60mins): flat (too quite volatile at this time frame)
On last post, i again warned about volatility and poor visibility. The road to 150 is certainly going to be bumpy, so we'll stick to longer time frames or cautiously stay flat for now.
60mins: volatile
MTFS has turned around but SPY is very hesitant around current highs. On account of options and futures expiry, we'll remain cautious about short term positions. We should not have any major retracement though.
Daily: volatile, with minor upward bias.
MTFS is almost out of steam, so volatility could kick in. There is a remaining upward bias, but at the same time a minor retracement cannot be discarded. We shall remain cautious even if fluctuations should remain constrained to a fairly narrow trading range. Over the medium term, we're still looking at the 150 target. It is quite possible that intermarket resistances are playing a role at the moment (besides witching day). For instance, we'll keep an eye on NDX's behaviour around 2000.
Weekly: recovery pausing 'naturally'
No change from last post:
Despite the Swing indicator now being Up, we still have a MTFS pattern waiting to complete, and the Swing gradient a little too steep anyway. If we now also add to the picture that entropy is just about balanced, it is clear that SPY will be now looking to consolidate. That's why we'll keep a close eye at possible support levels on the daily chart.
To avoid reading too much in the chart right now, we'll also take into account that consolidations sometimes fail... In such case the Fib (expansion) pattern would start south from last pivot point just above 142. We should obviously know more about it over the next few weeks.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Market Snapshot for SPY - May 14th 2008
cf. ER2 post below for guidance.
NOTE: there might be no snapshot tomorrow May 15th
Market Snapshot for NDX - May 14th 2008
cf. ER2 post below for guidance.
NOTE: there might be no snapshot tomorrow May 15th.
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 14th '08
Dominant TF: all 3 !
Swings: UP-UP-UP (weekly swing still hesitant)
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: minor upper bias.
Position (60mins): profit-taking, some would stay long.
Options (RUT):
Short May780 Calls, Long May790 Calls, Long May550 Puts, Short May560 Puts.
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.
We saw yesterday that 2000 is still quite strong, yet we know it should break out soon.
Now, on ER2, I was right on May 8th to predict that 711 would hold, but the recovery to the 7530s level was a little surprising at this level. This is why I recommended to switch to lower time frames to better follow the evolution of market dynamics.
NOTE: I cannot assure there will be market snapshots tomorrow.
60mins: congestion to upper bias
ER2 should break the 60mins resistance level to allow it to reach the psychological 750 level. MTFS looks a little tired and Entropy is also weakening, so another round of congestion could happen.
At the same time, there could be increased volatility close to expiration day.
Daily: congestion to minor upper bias
We can all notice that 750 turned to strong resistance and that ER2 is now sitting at stall level. MTFS is certainly confirming the current hesitation. We will still give the current upper bias a chance, but it is quite unlikely that we reach and pass 750 over the next few days. Again volatility could cause the 750 resistance level to turn into a temporary price magnet, but congestion around current levels looks like the most plausible scenario.
Weekly: congestion, possible retracement
Upper bias still confirmed, and congestion may happen a little higher than previously anticipated. We do not have a high energy environment so prices can be pushed much higher without some consolidation. Having said that, ER2 could reach 750 sooner than we first thought.
Again, we'll wait for the completion of the MTFS pattern to gauge whether ER2 is capable to return to a bullish trend, and reach 2007 highs again. We have to be a little more patient...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 13th '08
cf. NDX post below for guidance.
Current options positions:
Short May780 Calls, Long May790 Calls, Long May550 Puts, Short May560 Puts.
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.
Market Outlook NDX for May 13th '08
Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market Direction (Daily): congestion/peak
Cycles: quite unreliable
Position (60mins): upper bias but quite volatile (check lower time frames)
I estimated yesterday that bearishness was temporary and support would be found soon ("from current lows to possibly 137.50"). While i was about right that previous day's lows would hold, I admittedly was surprised by such a good looking bounce (natural attraction to key levels).
Now, back to NDX which found support in the high 1940s, which incidently were stall level on lower intraday time frames (way more significant than the 60mins time frame). Yet, despite the high volatility environment has remained positive over the last few days. We'll however remain very cautious at this key level.
60mins: close to the 2000 mark again.
Significance level is not great and Entropy may peak again around the 2000 resistance level. We'll take cues from lower time frames which do look bullish, so penetrating (at least temporarily) the resistance level is possible.
Daily: likely congestion at test level
Again, MTFS points towards a congestion or minor upper bias at this high level. If resistance holds, a minor retracement is also possible without affecting the overall up trend.
Weekly: Caution - Resistance level around 2000
The Swing is UP again as we approach the key 2000 level (Fib + MM). It should technically hover on that level or a little higher (Fib level is around 2010), as it is probably too early to digest the financial crisis we've experienced.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Market Outlook SPY for May 12th '08
Dominant TF: weekly and daily charts. 60mins coming back strongly.
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Cycles: still unreliable
Market Direction (daily): congestion/retracement but upper bias still overall
Position (60mins): flat to short (and quite volatile at this time frame)
On last post, i warned about volatility and poor visibility on the 60mins chart. Picture has so far been clearer on longer time frames, and the congestion was anticipated there.
60mins: down, looking for support (137.5?)
MTFS is bearish although it is likely that a support will be found soon, from current lows to possibly 137.50.
Daily: profit taking should be limited.
The obvious retracement has started as mentioned on last post. SPY will now be looking for support without affecting significantly the current recovery. 137.50 looks like a reasonable support level, but Fib levels will also be considered. MTFS certainly does not point for anything more than a moderate pullback. 150 remains the target over the medium term, even if again the road last year's highs looks bumpy, and maybe full of surprises...
Weekly: recovery pausing 'naturally'
Despite the Swing indicator now being Up, we still have a MTFS pattern waiting to complete, and the Swing gradient a little too steep anyway. If we now also add to the picture that entropy is just about balanced, it is clear that SPY will be now looking to consolidate. That's why we'll keep a close eye at possible support levels on the daily chart.
To avoid reading too much in the chart right now, we'll also take into account that consolidations sometimes fail... In such case the Fib (expansion) pattern would start south from last pivot point just above 142. We should obviously know more about it over the next few weeks.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 9th '08
Dominant TF: weekly chart, then daily. 60mins coming back
Swings: DN-UP-UP (weekly swing still hesitant)
Cycles: poor fit, but long cycle detected.
Market Direction: moderate congestion.
Position (60mins): flat to short.
Options (RUT):
Short May780 Calls, Long May790 Calls,
Long May550 Puts, Short May560 Puts
Despite the relatively high volatility on the 60mins chart, the retracement on range highs certainly didn't come as a surprise. Shorter intraday time frames give a good picture, but one should favour the dominant time frames providing they conform our trading style.
We will also follow EURUSD and QM closely.
60mins: congestion or possible continuation of erosion.
Last post was correct, and now that the MM pivot level seems penetrated, ER2 (RUT) could go slightly lower. MTFS however does not point for any serious retracement, and congestion is more likely (711 should hold). This is not the dominant time frame so we'll take cues from higher time frames unless needed.
Daily: expected retracement is here at last.
MTFS indicates a moderate retracement so we'll check for channel lows and Fib levels. For the time being, we'll aim at a support level above 700 (high 680s also possible).
Weekly: congestion, possible retracement
No major change since last post:
Fib PR1 seems to be a resistance strong enough to force ER2 to consolidate a little lower. MTFS is now close to completing its pattern. For the time being, we anticipate the some congestion range [690-730] to hold. Should support be found around 690, ER2 would spring back to 750 which would be the test level going forward.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for May 8th '08
Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to retracement
Cycles: quite unreliable
Position (60mins): flat to short
NDX needed to hit 2000 to trigger significant selling. We all anticipated that, it is however still always amazing to see. We now have to see whether the market consolidates soon or not. The bias remains up overall.
60mins: looking for support
Despite the sudden profit taking session yesterday, we have no indication of a continuation of the fall. Significance level is low so we'll favour channel lows and Fib/MM levels for possible support (including current level).
NB: Intraday time frames give great charts with a support level at 1938.
Daily: congestion to minor retracement
MTFS points towards a congestion at this high level but a minor retracement is possible without affecting the ongoing recovery overall. Like on the 60mins chart, we will look closely at Fib/MM levels even more so since significance level is high. In case of retracement, we will look for support around 1910 then 1880.
Weekly: Resistance level around 2000
No significant change from last post:
The Swing is still down, in agreement with MTFS which is still only in an upward retracement mode.
This confirms the scenario whereby the 2000 area should remain a strong resistance level (Fib + MM).
Now we have to see how a retracement accelerates the completion of the MTFS pattern.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
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