Market Update - Aug 6th '09

Prices are still hoevering the key 1000 level, and i'm afraid it is not possible to know right now whether it will break out on the up side or not. There is some potential indeed, and we could give it a slight bias, but retracement can certainly not be discarded either.

We also note that TF and ES are exactly in synch so neither can pull the other one in either direction...

Nota Bene: There will be a weekoy report this weekend but no daily update next week.

Market Update - Aug 4th '09

There we are. 1000.
What next now ???

There is still substantial buying pressure to dissipate. Prices should stay high today again, probably due to some residual momentum trading. TF could even breakout from the 562 resistance area and aim for the next Fib target near 600. A pause (or very minor retracement) is however likely in the short term.

( posted 8:15 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Aug 3rd to 7th '09

ES has shown to be hesitant on month end, with increasing signs of some modes retracement ahead of the 1000 target. It is difficult to say whether 1000 will be hit shortly or hit at all, as a high of 994 falls within the margin of error.

For now there is still substantial resilience and profit taking looks limited. One cannot however discard some acceleration either way as the week progresses. Tick charts (max 1 day visibility) point for some retracement, and we'll watch the key 984 and 992 pivot levels which could send prices to 1000 or not (price segments are roughly 8 points apart). A continuation of the same hesitation and consequently of the same trading range in the 980s is also possible.

Note that TF is also hovering around target area (550 to 560) with a next target around 600-625. However a stall or minor retracement is also expected here.


NB: there may be only one or two reports this week unless market action warrants regular updates of course.

( posted 9:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 31st '09

The market stopped a little short again with some profit taking on 994. Selling actually started on the TF resistance level (hence always a good reason to watch several correlated instruments). ES a Fib target on 996, and the so much expected 1000 level.

At the bottom of the current trading range, 984 seems to be a strong support level at the moment, so we should see more hesitation today ahead of key target levels, and possibly adjust positions accordingly. It is not possible to anticipate any significant retracement with any accuracy right now.
On the downside, we'll watch for a breakout of the 984 level (next strong support level is in the high 960s). We however do favour continuation of the current trading range ([984-1000] for the time being.

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 30th '09

We've seen the market pausing and even resting a bit on the 968 level yesterday. It is now going to test 984 again but while 1000 is now really just a stone's throw away, we have increasing indications of a market stall. Note however that we cannot evaluate how far our leading indicators are looking so the market may still try and hit 1000 before stalling and maybe retracing. The overall picture remains quite bullish at the moment.

TF is also on a strong resistance (next target would be in the 600 area). Such breakout would equate to another jump of nearly 10%, which is possible but unlikely at the moment.

( posted 7:25 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 29th '09

We indeed saw the market stalling yesterday as expected. Good timing to possibly lighten positions or tighten stops, but residual buying pressure is stull strong ... and 1000 is so close.

Light summer volumes may indeed accentuate volatility both ways, without any definite change of scenario i.e. a bullish stall. In the short term, we'll check 968 for support, and 956 in the very worst case. We're likely to go and hit 984 and maybe 1000 first.

TF has pushed the 546 level to strong resistance level, icreasing the likelyhood of some (limited) profit taking. The stall scenario should be valid maybe for a day or two.

( posted 7:40 AM UK)

Market Update - Jul 28th '09

ES seems to be rising relentlessly to 1000, but we have to see how it will behave now that it has reached the Fib/MM resistance area (i.e. 979-984). Again we have preliminary signs of a peak (Entropy and MTFS) so money management can be adjusted accordingly.

Note that there is obviously no indication of reversal whatsoever, so the peak will first be a market stall at best.

TF is following the exact same path.


( posted 8 AM UK)

Weekly Report - Jul 27th to Aug 1st '09

ES has reached a resistance area (977 to 984) yet is still so bullish that one almost couldn't see it stopping before hitting the "Almighty 1000". Technically speaking, the 1000 level is also a collection of several Fib and MM levels hence we should consider it more like a battlefield than a demarcation line.

ES could actually slow down and even retrace a little still ahead of the major target. Well, we have a few advanced indicators like MTFS and Entropy, but like last week, we have to see them peaking first, so it may take a day or two to materialize. Note that 30mins time frames and lower do respond better at the moment.


TF has almost surprisingly reached the same Fib target (547) at the exact same time. Dynamics are virtually identical, and we can here therefore anticipate the next target (Fib + MM) in the 600 area, which would translate into the higher part of the target range for ES i.e. more around 1040 (2nd Fib target). Again, MTFS and Entropy here too announce a pause and a possible limited retracement, hence those targets should be reached in waves over a week or two. It remains difficult to anticipate that trajectory with any sort of accuracy with volumes likely to drop as we approach the month of August.


( posted Sat 1:30 PM UK )

Note that i might skip a report or two next week, unless the market really surprises us enough to warrant an update of this scenario. EURUSD may actually be a lot more interesting to monitor, the being question mark being if/when it will take off to its next target around 1.465

Market Update - Jul 24th '09

We finally see a possible pause in this apparently relentless rise to 1000 level. We have a Fib target around 978 and a stall level at 984 which together explain the limited profit taking we've seen late in the day.
One should not indeed any reversal nor even any significant retracement today. Hesitation has so far favoured buyers and in absence of any major news, one could see some residual momentum and therefore see ES stay pretty high.
MTFS and Entropy are starting to show some weakness though, so it would be worth monitoring the market behaviour in realtime.

ER has caught up with ES to an extent, and show still a little more resilience. Here too, while profit taking seems a logical step now, we have to remain careful and try not to read too much into our charts. Reversal should occur pretty soon, but it probably won't be possible to pick it up on this daily report. Slower time frames will be necessary. Note however that it may happen today, monday, who knows...

More details on the weekly report tomorrow.

( posted 7:50 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 23rd '09

Difficult to find something new and interesting about yesterday's trading... The market has been hesitant on key target without engaging in any sort of retracement. The daily chart is still quite bullish, only marginally dissipating energy accumulated over the last two weeks. ES should therefore stay quite high in the 940s, and only then shall we maybe see Entropy peaking. Entropy level is high in reversal territory but it would take at least a few days to evacuate the current bullishness.

TF, just like ES, is hovering around range highs and could go both ways from here. We'll remain careful around this key levels, taking into consideration that chances of retracement are very limited.

( posted Wed 11 PM UK )

Market Update - Jul 22nd '09

We've seen ES hitting 953 twice yesterday. Will it now breakout higher ? It seems quite likely indeed as a number of market participants have their eyes on 1000 already.
Having said that, we have to remain cautious on this level still.

TF also hit its target on 530 and is also quit bullish still.

We cannot discard some profit taking today without revising our market outlook. We indeed have to keep in mind that a summerly trading range is also quite possible. Behaviour on this key level (weekly trading range highs) will have to be monitored closely.


A special note on EURUSD: aggressive traders may want to go short already, but that's probably way too early at these time frames. Just watch out for a pivot point for the time being, keeping in mind that current target may just as well be broken to reach Dec '08 highs again...
(Both € and US$ economic blocks run such massive amounts of debt...)

( posted 7:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Jul 21st '09

ES is now close to its target, but again remains quite bullish hence could at best stall at these levels. The swing angle on the daily chart looks a little too steep to fly straught to the almighty 1000, so that battle may have to wait and some profit taking on these range highs is more than likely.
Same situation for TF, lagging slightly behind though. One could assume it could also reach the top of its trading range around 530.
We can also note that both ES and TF could end this period of congestion if both weekly bars turn blue on Friday, probably then indicating aiming higher. Again, while buying pressure remains substantial, we are likely to see some profit taking and therefore continuation of the trading range. In the short term, let's check for the market behaviour on range highs. Any forthcoming retracement would be quite limited.

( posted 7 AM UK )