Market Update - Jun 10th '09

Same trading range and same hesitation with that same underlying bullishness. ES levels have now moved up one notch, with a target around 950 to 953. We're still unsure whether we'll see the market give a go at 1000 before retracing. The daily chart indeed tends to suggest a pause if not a retracement once range highs are hit again.

TF could be aiming back at range highs but shows even less inclination to go straight to the 600. A retracement is quite likely to gather forces for the assault of the 600 / 625 levels.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Market Update - Jun 9th '09

Market is still very much hesitant. We've seen ES almost testing range lows as mentioned yesterday, but finally still hovering around that same key 937 level. A breakout is possible, which would postpone the otherwise necessary retracement. Again the daily chart is still very pushy, so shall we see the market jump to the next price segment ?

TF is again somewhat less bullish right now, but longer term traders can safely aim for a higher price target.

( posted 6:45 AM UK )

Weekly Report ER & TF - Jun 8th to 12th '09

ES has been hovering on the Daily stall level for about the entire week, and is probably looking for direction now. Market participants will now have to decide to pause or attack the almighty 1000 level.

The 60mins chart is certainly looking at retracing on the 937.5 resistance level yet shows a LOT of resilience hence could remain overbought and rangy for a while. We will however check range lows on 920 (short term) and eventually 905 (mid term).

Again the daily chart is still VERY bullish so a prefered longer term scenario would be a testing of 1000 then a retracement to 875 (we'll check Fib/MM by then).


TF is again a little out of synch regarding levels, and is now a little less bullish than ES also. This is why we still can't discard a test of the 500 level again before aiming on 600 / 625. This short term pullback may coincide with a testing of range lows on ES.

Those who entered long early (weekly chart) have no reason to worry but can maybe tighten stops a bit in case of turbulences.


( posted Monday 9 AM UK )

Market Update - Jun 5th '09

ES is still overbought and bullish, stuck on the 937.5 level, last obstacle to the 1000 level. While a retracement is still possible, a breakout on the up side is now more probable.
The question now is: Shall we see that 937 pivot level being tested as a new support to go higher ?

TF shows a little more resistance, maybe adding a little more pressure leading potentially to that same breakout above 531. That is also our (updated) scenario now, even if a resistance level always remains a resistance level until broken (am i not soooo good at stating the obvious....)

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Jun 4th '09

Sorry for yesterday. I just couldn't get back up to speed in a matter of a few hours. South Africa is a strange place where people live like there is no tomorrow, and where crime is rampant. So, one just gets organized, have everything insured, make sure the neighbourhood is security-patrolled, and then life goes on, like nothing ever happened... What a wonderful world this is...


Anyway, back to work:

ES (60mins) retraced to bounce on Fib Pr1 and MM level. 937 is still pretty strong and actually is a stall level at daily level. Is this going to be the signal for the awaited retracement ? Difficult to say. As always, we want to avoid reading too much "between the bars" so we'll check the 937 level carefully.

Same story on TF. As mentioned previously, we had to realize that markets had to align and 531 is now the key level here. No reason to be contrarian though. Let's go with the flow for the time being, even if a "air hole" starts showing on the daily chart.

More details on the next weekly report.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Welcome to SOUTH AFRICA

My PC was stolen last night, in this wonderful city of Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA.
I'll try to refrain expressing my views on this country today to avoid being banned for life by Blogger.com ....

I'm going to try and get a backup PC going some time today.
At best, today's report will be quite late.

Market update - Jun 2nd '09

ES and TF indeed broke out on the upside, ES reaching the top of the trading range in a quantum leap we've discussed before. TF understandably "heavier", went the same way, but was stopped on stall level.

A moderate retracement is possible at this level since 937 is a strong resistance level on both the 60mins and Daily charts. Markets are very bullish and overbought but a retracement from highs is likely to be limited and possibly test the low 920s (previous highs of the trading range which just broke out).

TF paused on stall level but shows little inclination to retrace still. Difficult to say whether it will attempt to reach 530 or gather forces on Fib PR1 just above 500, but there is probably enough momentum left in the market to aim a little higher.

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Weekly Report on ES & TF - Jun 1st to 4th '09

Here is the month of June, a summer break in sight for those who can afford one, and maybe time to relax soon, to take a step back and look at these mad markets again... Does anyone know where markets will be Dec 31st ? No the slightest idea, i'm afraid.

Anyway, not there yet, so let's have a look at what's in store for this coming week:

ES is definitely trying to breakout on the up side, the 60mins chart is quite bullish with a target just above 930 then 937. Breaking the daily highs would certainly open the way to the almighty 1000. Again we have no such evidence on our charts, and while this may look like stubbornly contrarian, the chances of retracement are still substantial.

If we now take cues from TF, this 500 level is certainly crucial and could certainly give is the market direction at least for the next few weeks. It has been penetrated, but is still valid. We can't ignore ignore that we have a Fib target around 541 hence a strong breakout potential here too. The 60mins chart is here also very bullish, and we also have a lid just above 500 containing prices for the time being. ER and ES have now aligned on their respective resistance levels and could congest or breakout in concert.

The GM announcement today may have a bullet effect either way. If we stick with our "go with the flow" method, our scenario for the week will remain: congestion (daily) with a strong upside breakout potential (60mins).

( posted 8:15 AM UK )

Market update - May 29th '09

Would be a good time to go on a long weekend today, as there is very little to add about these markets.

One can just notice a narrowing of the range, indicating a possible breakout either way. The daily chart still points for a retracement as mentioned in previous reports.

Look for breakout immediate targets around 882 on the downside, 920 in the upside, still within our daily range, hence still in the same congestion. Ultimately, retracement is still our favourite scenario.

( posted 6:55 AM UK )

Market update - May 28th '09

ES finally decided to plunge on the 60mins chart, but nothing to be excited about at least until we've passed daily range lows (strong support in the 875 area).

We might indeed see some continuation of the current hesitation for a little longer. However the daily indicators start showing some exhaustion so we might see the support being tested soon enough. Note that we still have a lower targetin the high 820s.

Once again, TF follows a similar path. Range lows on support level around 468 must be broken before we can aim at the low to mid 440s, then around 300. We do not anticipate more than a moderate retracement for now.

( posted 7:45 AM UK )

Market update - May 27th '09

Sorry for yesterday... one of those days...

Anyway, was i right or wrong ? A bit of both. ES indeed hit lows as expected, but i did not pay enough attention to the bounce potential. ES even passed a significant 906 level and could therefore aim back at range higher in the low to mid 920s.

Having said that, this is only "noise" at daily level, and this trading range is kind of directionless, and could eventually break on the way down, as described in previous reports. Our outlook remains a target in the mid 820s upon breaking on the 866-875 level. On the upside, the target would obviously be the almighty 1000.

If we take cues from TF (aka ER), we'll have to check the 500 level carefully. It should hold and send prices down, but we'll remain carefully of a breakout nonetheless.

( posted late 7:40 AM UK )

Market update - May 26th '09

Just a quick note today. One should expect slow drifting to last week lows, or to major support as described in previous reports.

More details tomorrow.

( posted late 10 AM UK )