Market Update - Oct 9th '09

The upward momentum is fading but is still there in the short term (60mins chart) and we have the same situation of conflicting forces or diverging information at least across our charts.

ES could and should stall but could technically creep higher. 1062 remains the key level for the time being. The weekly chart is pointing towards a retracement (EntBin=5) but it can be in the next 3 weeks or more! We'll therefore stick to the 60mins chart for direction.

We'll go with the flow with TF also bullish on 610 resistance level, with no indication of a strong retracement initially. It could however retrace to 1st or 2nd Fib level in the next few days if 610 holds.
TF tends to tell us that the forthcoming potential retracement on the weekly chart is both obvious yet limited also. Confusing isn't it ?
The market will almost certainly try and test one of the key levels we've seen in recent weeks, for support this time.

EURUSD: range bound for now.

( posted 8:30 AM UK )

Market Update - Oct 8th '09

As said yesterday, ES is under conflicting influences, hence "our outlook is still of an upward bias on the hourly chart, of a congestion on the daily chart and of a retracement over the longer term".

ES is now on a strong resistance at 1062 trying to go even higher. Taking the risk of looking stubborn, our outlook is unchanged today.

TF is on stall level with some residual bullishness, so could reach resistance level on 609. Like ES, it should however stall, congest (daily chart), and eventually retrace (weekly chart).

EURUSD: still bullish to 1.477 so we should go with the flow (as always) while remaining cautious. Like indices, we anticipate a peak. Retracement should however be limited.

( posted 6:20 AM UK )

Market Update - Oct 7th '09

ES shot up to Fib PR2 around 1052, which could jeopardize our longer term scenario. We have to admit that chart reading was not as clear over the last few days with conflicting information. This unfortunately happens sometimes.
Obviously the report frequency being daily, one can expect the information to be more related to the shorter time frames, but we also try to provide a longer term view.
Our outlook is still of an upward bias on the hourly chart, of a congestion on the daily chart and of a retracement over the longer term...
We'll check 1052 on ES and 600 on TF as short term resistance levels.

EURUSD: we'll keep an eye on 1.464
€/$ should lose a bit of ground, but behaviour on that key level will determine where it will go next.
We notice that despite being very overbought selling pressure on the weekly chart has reduced, hence the retracement we've announced for a while may be overall even more limited than we anticipated.

( posted 5 AM UK )

Market Update - Oct 6th '09

I have to admit the weekly report is a little wrong. We did notice a landing on target with no selling pressure to go lower, but we could not anticipate a jump over the weekend (news?) even if the time was indeed right for a reversal.

ES now retraced to the first salient Fib level and still does not convince us of a stronger recovery. Obviously, volatility has been pretty strong over the last week that a move of 1% or 2% up or down would not be indicative of anything but noise. Right or wrong, we keep our target down over the medium term.

TF of course also bounced, or should i say, led the bounce since the support level on 578 was certainly obvious. TF also bounced to Fib level and like ES will probably fade over the next couple of days.

We'll refine our targets over the next few days.

EURUSD broke on the up side and hit about stall level (1.474) close to the 1.477 target. We cannot at this point say that the retracement below 1.45 was the one we expected just yet. We'll have to wait for the weekly pivot to confirm, knowing that chances of a strong retracement are certainly low.

( posted late 8 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Oct 5th to 9th '09

Our chart reading went quite well last week.

ES indeed landed on 1022 as anticipated, breathing a bit on its way lower. There is not enough selling pressure to justify a Fib target on the weekly chart, so we'll keep a cautious target around the stall level on the 60mins chart (i.e. just below 1010).

TF is sitting on a strong support level so the same dynamics may lead to some fighting at first. A floor could be found half a segment (~16 points) lower in the low 560s.
Like for ES, we'll then check energy levels to then confirm weekly Fib targets or not.

EURUSD: strange volatility spike which bounced on 1.452 (after penetrating it quite deep) to hit the 1.464 key level. This event makes our time frames send us conflicting information, but we'll stick to a higher probability scenario, erasing the effect of the spike to return to our previous erosion mode. We'll check 1.452 again then 1.444
Again our weekly chart does only point towards a minor retracement (16 or 23% Fib at most).

( posted Sun 8:30 AM UK )

NB: Tuesday's update will probably be posted late

Market Update - Oct 2nd '09

We finally got our retracement ! Last report was posted before we could confirm the acceleration but the direction was right nonetheless. Hedge funds probably had a go at indices on the 1st day of the month (will it be a dreadful October like many times in the past...)

ES is now on its target (1022) where a temporary bounce is possible. We aim lower though around 1007 or even 1000 but maybe not today. We are however not going to turn morose and start drawing Fib retracement levels on the weekly chart.

TF has been if not leading at least giving us clearer pictures lately and we notice the strong support level on 578 (stall level 582). We'll wait to see whether the level holds today, or whether like ES, we aim lower. The pressure is on but selling could well abate temporarily.

EURUSD: we would like to see a bounce on strong support level on 1.4526 but the daily chart is bearish still. Should the level break, EURUSD could shed another full cent in less than a week.

( posted 7:40 aM UK )

Market Update - Oct 1st '09

A bit of traveling again tomorrow so here is an early shorter report which i might update before the open.

One will notice that i was spot on again yesterday with pretty accurate targets... Erosion seems likely to continue for both ES and TF. It is difficult to say right now whether selling will pick up momentum or whether it will aim lower than current range lows (60mins chart). This is a clear "airhole" situation which can lead to temporary hesitation, congestion, and directionless volatility.

EURUSD: very marginal upward bias, and at the same time 1.464 turned to stronger resistance level... This price level can be tested again but EURUSD will likely then drift lower to recent lows.

( posted 10:07 PM UK )

Market Update - Sep 30th '09

ES is for the time being stuck on the key 1062 resistance level. It has since shed a few points but has not clearly retraced yet. We therefore cannot confirm the reversal point we've been waiting for.
We have a provisional Fib pattern with a 1st target on 1046 but no energy to support more than a possible continuation of the current erosion.
TF follows the same path with an immediate target on 604 then maybe 596. The same lack of entropy and MTFS patterns makes it relatively directionless.

EURUSD left key level on 1.464 to drop to 1.453 (MM+Fib) where it bounced. 1.464 remains crucial in the short term and congestion is to be expected until we get a clearer reversal point (at these time frames).

( posted 6:55 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 29th '09

The bounce was anticipated on the Fib level but definitely stronger than we would have thought, to aim straight back at 1062, key level, now Fib upward retracement level.
We'll therefore watch that price level closely today. We have been telling that the bullishness we've have for a number of weeks is bound to come to an end, even if it can still creep a little higher.
The same situation for TF could take it back to recent highs (check for 614 first) but we have to be careful here too. Buying pressure is still present but could evaporate leading to increasing hesitation and volatility.

EURUSD: watch same key level at 1.464

( posted 6:40 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Sep 28tht to Oct 2nd '09

Market reading went quite well last week. Let's hope we'll have another good week.

ES has sort of landed on Fib level where it could rebound softly. However selling pressure is now definitely there so we could aim lower again around 1030. The overall longer term trend is however still relatively bullish, so a continued period of hesitation is likely. We know that the weekly chart is pointing for a retracement to come but the exact trigger point isn't quite there yet on the daily chart.

TF shows a clearer picture as it has hit its target on 594. It is however still quite bearish. We'll therefore watch that 594 support level closely as it could trigger more selling and induce the retracement the 580s then maybe to around 555 in a couple of weeks. Again, TF has been leading lately, and could take ES down with it.

EURUSD: bearish right now.
The 1.464 is still test level which could be hit again as a resistance during the course of the day. On the downside, we'll check the Fib level around 1.454 but we have not indication of more than a minor retracement on the weekly chart. The trend is firmly up there despite being very overbought right now.

( posted 7:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 25th '09

We now have more clarity about ES going for a soft landing on 1040, or possibly eroding further to around 1030 (our usual 32 price segment from 1062). Again no change in our longer term bullish outlook.

TF has stalled on ... stall level of course, but could well hit 594. As mentioned yesterday, we even aim lower without affecting our long term target much.

EURUSD: We aim at 1.464 for support and possibly then bounce higher. We're in for a bumpy ride anyway...

( posted 8:45 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 24th '09

We now have evidence of the modest retracement we've been waiting for. Again, I realize the message has been possibly somewhat confusing but the longer term targets remain unchanged.

We also notice that TF is leading the retracement after hitting its target on 625. taking ES down with it (as anticipated). We now have to check a short term support on 609 which could trigger the full on retracement to the 580s, then 560s. Again, longer term players should worry.

EURUSD: some erosion yet one can't call it a fall. The US$ should remain weak over all. We'll check the 1.477 key level for now, which could indicate aiming for 1.465 later on.

( posted late at 9 AM UK )