Saturday, September 29, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 1st '07


Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral. Probable congestion.

AdStoK and Entropy are both indicating congestion with negative bias. SPY is likely to remain in a trading range, and possibly retrace a bit if the market gives up on the 153.50 key level.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.