Friday, October 12, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 12th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until ...

60mins: Consolidation around 2125 support level. Possible trading range.

Despite the strong bull run, 2188 was given as an important test level. Selling on that level has been as crazy as the previous rise, and should now stop on 2125.
We'll have to watch that level of course, but preferably in a lower time frame (for entry/exit), or EOD for the general trend, which will both have a much higher significance level.

Daily: Despite yesterday's hiccup, no change in trend for now, but still very very overbought. Possible tug-of-war.
This profit taking session had to happen, and I expected it to happen a little later, probably triggered by other indices.
We however had a special configuration with a strong MM resistance on the 60mins chart at the same level as the MM stall level on the daily chart.
Levels to watch: 2125 and lower Fib levels, but one should not panic as there is still a lot of accumulated energy in the market. NDX could just as well bounce to 2250.

Weekly: UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is so low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can however notice a divergence, hence there is a possible slowdown on forthcoming resistance and line meeting point (within a couple of weeks).