Friday, October 26, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 26th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and 60mins (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion.

Volatility is very high, possibly confirming our earlier diagnostic that we may be close to a key level. The market is so overbought that a correction would be healthy. We have to note that the swing indicator has turned down for both dominant time frames.

60mins: congestion.
The market is both resilient and very volatile. Lower time frames seem to point slightly upward in the same trading range. The 10mins chart show vergy good looking cycles. The up potential is however limited.It is too early to project Fib expansion patterns, but we would like to make some sense of the current congestion. The trading range is a little narrower, between 2156 and 2188.

Daily: Congestion to Up. Slow down in overbought territory.
NDX is overbought, and each retracement so far has failed. Entropy is however declining, so one may just try and reach 2250 (or stay at prior stall level around current highs). MTFS green line holding well, so even if a strong retracement is expected it is nowehere visible in our indicators right now.
Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion.