Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 16th '07


Dominant TF: Daily & Weekly
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion, possibly mildly Up after support level is found.

60mins: Down, or a bit of roller-coaster at best.

We undoubtedly saw it coming from a distance and the situation is about the same as for SPY, except maybe that we are on stronger support or pivot levels. AdStoK and Entropy certainly point lower, so we should maybe look for a lower support level.

Daily: Congestion to down at first. Overall direction unchanged yet but new support will have to be found.
AdStoK is weaker and lines are crossing, indicating a definite slowdown. The red bar confirms also the diagnostic. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than those levels... unless some economic news shock the system of course.

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even possibly go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.