Thursday, October 18, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 18th '07


Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily (low intraday time frames too). Weekly influence declining.
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to down initially. Overall trend is still up, but support must be found first.

60mins: Congestion to down, but probably at a slow pace.

It is interesting to see that the 828 pivot level is now a new lower resistance level. AdStoK and Entropy point lower toward support levels around 820 first, but much stronger at 813. Significance level is high so we probably just have to follow the trend until AdStoK lines cross.
Lower time frames do indicate new testing of 828 at first though

Daily: Congestion to down at first. Overall direction unchanged yet but new support will have to be found.
No new information:

AdStoK is weaker and lines are crossing, indicating a definite slowdown. The red bar confirms also the diagnostic. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than pivot level.

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even possibly go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.