Friday, October 19, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 19th '07


Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily (15mins time frames too). Weekly influence declining.
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to down initially. Overall trend is still up, but support must be found first.

60mins: Congestion to mildly down, but probably at a slow pace.

We've had a bit of a bounce, which could technically reach PR1 close to 830, but MTFS (AdStoK) is giving a pattern that is more indicative of a trading range so it may not get there any time soon.
On the down side, the same support levels are valid: 820 then 813 later on.

Daily: Down, til support is found.
No new information:
MTFS (formerly AdStoK) is weaker, lines have crossed, bars are red, all indicating a definite slowdown. We could certainly look for support between 808 (Fib) and 812 (MM) in the next few days.
The high volatility environment seems to accelerate movements in either direction, however Entropy is still fairly high so this down move should be fairly controlled. No reason just yet to believe it will go lower than pivot level.

Weekly: mildly up until...
Significance level is lower, but the overall "U shape" MTFS pattern is still there, and strong MM resistance remains 875.
One must check significance level (divergence) which could invalidate the pattern. Lower time frames will soon provide us with clues (support level and return to the dominant trend).