Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 11th '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Mildly UP at least until resistance is tested.

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

AdStoK lines haven't joined and Entropy is again coming down a bit. Current resistance at 156.25 is obviously still valid, and since the significance level is not very high, one must look for clues on higher times frames.

Daily: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK may soon show first signs of weakness as lines could cross shortly, but this probably won't translate into a retracement any time soon.
We now have to watch how the market attacks the current strong resistance level (all time highs + MM + FIB (60mins)). Note that this MM level is not as strong as same level in July. One can just as well see a strong breakout or a kind of double top. There is still so much accumulated energy that the latter scenario is less probable at this stage.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming.
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK when lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top later on?).