Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 2nd '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP (!)
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. July highs in sight now.

60mins: mildly UP to UP, until forthcoming resistance level.

We admittedly didn't quite anticipate the breakout reaction on finally passing the 153.50 key level.
AdStoK is bullish but Entropy shows possible signes of peaking and the MM range is actually narrower, indicating a possible trading range around this new 154.50 level.
A Fib pattern has reached its OP, however there is a XOP level concurring with the new MM target.
This would mean testing July highs in the coming days.

Daily: mildly UP to UP.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, which is an unusual situation for Entropy. One can only expect continuation of the same situation, i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross. Entropy at 3 is historically very high, so a slowdown (rate of increase) is almost certain.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher (at least for now).

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
The Swing indicator has finally turned UP!
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator.