Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 3rd '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. July highs in sight now.

60mins: neutral.

Very similar to yesterday:
AdStoK is bullish but Entropy shows possible signs of peaking and the MM range is actually narrower, indicating a possible trading range around this new 154.50 level.
A Fib pattern has reached its OP, however there is a XOP level concurring with the new MM target.
This would mean testing July highs in the coming days.
The Swing indicator is momentarily down, so SPY could pause or retrace a bit.

Daily: mildly UP to UP.
Entropy is now stable at a high level, and AdStoK is giving a last bout to reach very overbought level without lines crossing. One can only expect continuation of the same situation, i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross. Entropy at 3 is historically very high, so a slowdown (rate of increase) is almost certain.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher (at least for now).

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
The Swing indicator is certainly hesitant as it is down again, indicating we might be close to a key level at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator.