Market Outlook NDX for Nov 16th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: congestion to down.

Dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames , so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. In particular, a support level at 2015.63 is in place, probably as the last defense line before 2000.

60mins: down
Significance level is declining at this time frame. The MTFS pattern only indicates a trading range with a down bias, so one can only anticipate some attempt to test 2000. Most traders feel the same, so some contrarian behaviour is possible.

Daily: Down, until support is tested again, then possible trading range.
MTFS and Entropy do look bearish and it seems clear the 2000 level will be hit. In such circumstances, the MTFS pattern has to complete, almost always in oversold territory. This indicates a potential to go lower (I mentioned a possible 1935 target yesterday), yet the 2000 level has turned from pivot to strong support, so there will certainly be some fighting on this level.

We can also note that the AutoFib indicator shows a possible recovery (target levels displayed on picture).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - very low significance level.
We knew we had to watch for that growing divergence, and Entropy peaking. Now, there is still no overall change in direction and this profit taking is only healthy after such a bull run. We have recurrence of the 1935 level, so it could certainly retrace a little more. Speed is however difficult to anticipate in this high vol environment.Again significance level is so low one should not jump to conclusions too quickly.