Thursday, November 22, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 23rd '07



Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: DN-DN-UP (from UP-DN-UP)
Market direction: Congestion to down. Behaviour on 2000 will be key.

Dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames, so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. Reading the 15 mins chart is very simple with a significance level of 82%

Interpretation very similar as yesterday's

60mins: more or less same trading range [2000-2030] with lower bias
More congestion ahead. Bias remains down, so behaviour on 2000 is obviously key.

Daily: Possible trading range with lower bias.
MTFS and Entropy both look fairly bearish but 2000 is defended ferociously. The MTFS white line has started showing stabilisation, so there will be more congestion and fighting on the 2000 support level. There is however a potential to go somewhat lower, at least until MTFS lines meet. Further down the line: If 2000 breaks, we have a possible 1935 target later on. On the other hand, should the latest pivot point hold which is quite possible since 2000 is now strong support, we have our AutoFib showing a potential recovery to levels we have seen recently (target levels displayed on picture).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - low significance level.
We knew we had to watch for that growing divergence, and Entropy peaking. Now, there is still no overall change in direction and this profit taking is only healthy after such a bull run. We have recurrence of the 1935 retracement level, so it could certainly come a little more down. In such case one cannot ignore that breaking the current channel would accelerate into serious selling pressure, but no panic just yet. 2000 is still holding...