Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 6th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: still mildly up.

Yesterday's Close is a nice round number, yet there is a lot of indecision in the air.

60mins: Mildly down, congestion.
We've been used to wild swings, so yesterday was calm in comparison. MTFS and Entropy are both indicative of congestion and the 2188 MM level seems to hold. It may provide some strength later on to reach 2250 (potential Fib pattern). It is however far too early now for such scenario.

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.
Apart the presence of a yellow bar, nothing much has changed, so NDX should creep up to previous highs, albeit considerably slower in comparison to what we've seen in the last couple of months. The rise may stall, but certainly no strong retracement in sight.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is still looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops. A peak in Entropy will also be an alert of a change in dynamics.