Market Outlook RUT for Nov 29th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: UP, but recovery must be confirmed.

See yesterday's post ("Check Cycles") as well as NDX and SPY commentaries today.

60mins: Up, but recovery must be confirmed.
Admittedly surprised by yesterday's move.
MTFS and Entropy look better but the MTFS green line is lagging behind while the white line reaches overbought territory very quickly. This indicates a likely pause (we even have a possible AutoFib pattern pointing south).
The 150 level could even be tested again for support.

Daily: congestion to mildly up
We expected a congestion and we got that sudden burst upward. The MTFS crossover on a negative gradient does not point for RUT going much higher for now, and while the fall looks stopped, a stronger base will need to be found to go higher (150?).
As for other instruments, cycles seem to show a turning point, however slightly delayed compared to NDX. Looking at MTFS, it is quite possible that such turnaround will occur after a stronger support is found within a few bars.

Weekly: return to the trading range
It is interesting to see RUT possibly closing the week over the lower end of the channel. For the time being, let's push the 'double top' scenario a little further (we might dump it in a few weeks). We're therefore now back in our [750-875] range, and pretty much directionless there.
Again, RUT has always bounced on PR2 in the last 2 years, and it may just behave the same this time again.