Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 21st '07


Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: down bias but expect some fighting on 143.75 support or lower...

60mins: Down, unless current MM pivot level holds.

Entropy and MTFS both still point down or just a congestion within the current trading range. Lows around current pivot level (143.75) have been tested. We now have to see how the MTFS bearish pattern develops until lines meet. No real recovery potential in the short term.

Daily: Down, but check support levels.
MTFS and Entropy do not look good and at this stage it is likely that the fall will continue until MTFS lines meet. MTFS may indicate a congestion around current lows. SPY could eventually fall further to 141 (Fib) or even 137.50 (MM). However the current fall in Entropy is not too alarming (see LEntBin), so congestion may happen on this support level.

AutoFib already gives potential recovery levels (L1 to L5) if current pivot holds.

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias. If 143.75 fails to hold, SPY could well also test the 137.50 level for a 3rd time...