Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 5th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-UP (from DN-UP-UP)
Market direction: recovery potential weakening but the recovery pattern is still there.

NDX came down a bit as expected, and is hovering around 2054 50% Fib level and 2062 MM level.

60mins: congestion to mild retracement.

Very similar to yesterday:
Continuation of price erosion until a support is found possibly around current levels but probably a little lower to next MM/Fib level (2054, then 2040) . There should be no serious downward acceleration though.

Daily: congestion to slightly up
Similar analysis:
The recovery pattern is weakening a bit indicating difficulty in reaching its Fib target. The dominant time frame being 60mins, one must be more cautious, so again the 60mins support level will have to be watched. It is essential that 2125 is passed so that NDX returns to the overall bullish trend and reaches Fib targets (2140 first), with 2250 being very significant (strong MM resistance as well).
Note: a new pivot (no5) is being detected on 2125, so failure to reach 2125 might soon translate into a down swing.

Weekly: trading range - lower bias
NDX is back into its channel. However current movements are too fast for this time frame at the moment, explaining the low significance level (53%).