Thursday, December 13, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 13th '07



Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins as well as lower time frames
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from UP-UP-DN)
Market Direction: possible congestion and higher volatility ahead.

Read previous general comments on SPY and NDX.
Patterns are different, but dynamics are correlated.

60 mins: Support level may have to be found lower
The 765 support level seems to hold, but MTS definitely has a lower bias, so it may be tested again. Entropy is quite low and could well bottom out once support is confirmed.

daily: congestion to moderately up in a high volatility environment.
MTFS and Entropy are weakening a bit, so we may have some congestion ahead. Again, the MTFS recovery pattern we've seen is certainly not our favourite, so we need a stronger base to go higher.

weekly: Directionless for the time being
Same situation: range [750-875]
Swing turned back down indicating RUT is not out of the woods just yet. Current congestion still hides a down bias. A weekly up bar, and if not blue, at least yellow, would confirm a safe return to the trading range.