Friday, December 14, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 14th '07


Dominant TF: Daily and low intraday time frames
Swing: DN-UP-DN (from DN-UP-UP)
Market Direction: No change in overall direction just yet, but lower bias in the short term

Similar comments as NDX.

60mins: Congestion within the same trading range.
We've had about the same situation with a recovery in the last couple of hours. 147 was not clearly hit though.
MTFS lines still have a slight bearish outlook, but it seems like SPY could be directionless.
The trading range should remain [147-150].

Daily: up technically but congestion to mild retracement at first.
MTFS white line is showing signs of weakness and Entropy is very high (Bin=5) and close to peaking.
We're therefore probably ahead of a congestion period within a [147-153] trading range..

Weekly: Congestion to moderate upper bias
MTFS is unreadable because of the low significance level, hence one should not pay too much attention to the lines down gradients.
For the time being, higher highs and higher lows are bullish signs, with due caution that moves in the last 6 months have been way too fast for this time frame.