Friday, January 11, 2008

Market Outlook NDX for Jan 11th '08


Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-UP)
Cycles (DomTF): have been turned off as too unreliable in this market
Market Direction (Daily): volatile with a down bias
Position (60mins):
Short: exited
Flat: wise
Long: risky

60mins: congestion to very moderately up
NDX is crawling up, but is not showing much energy to go significantly higher. MTFS shows a slight up bias, so NDX may reach PR1 just above 1980 though.

Daily: congestion to erosion
NDX took a bit of a breather yesterday, but MTFS and Entropy do still point down. One shall notice that the MTFS white line is tempting an upturn. We should not expect any significant recovery to expect here, NDX should even carry on losing ground. However, the Fib pattern is completed, so we are now waiting for the next event, either test 2000 or or lows again. In such volatile environment both events may occur, yet the down bias should prevail in the end.

Weekly: definite down bias, check Fib and MM levels
It seems the bull run is now over so we may need to enter a correction mode (not bear mode yet though). One can notice that the Swing indicator is hesitant at this level.
Note: this proprietary Swing algorithm differs from conventional algorithms which always toggle in lower time frames first. We are in this instance probably close to a key level at this time frame.