Market Outlook SPY for Apr 10th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: upper bias
Position (60mins): short

Yesterday's post on RUT was correct, except maybe that retracement passed PR2 and even almost hit PR2. Just more profits overall...
Back to SPY. Last post was also correct. Same behaviour on range high, so the same pull-back was anticipated.

60mins: will MM support hold?
SPY is now down to the 50% retracement, and seems to have bounced there late in the day. MTFS is now engaged downward, so support should be found lower. SPY could therefore test 135, or even 134.

Daily: moderate retracement
With a high EntBin (=4), profit taking was expectable, but retracement should remain moderate. Since significance level is low on this time frame, we shall rather consider MM and FIb level on the 60mins chart. The bias remains upward overall.

Weekly: again, no significant change yet.
As expected, the bounce took SPY up to PR1 (38.2% retracement) and is now taking a breather. At this time frame, we only have to check how negative pressure dissipates over time. The MTFS pattern does not show any long term recovery potential just yet, but any possible down move going forward should now be cushioned. We therefore just have to be patient.