Market Outlook SPY for Apr 7th '08

Dominant TF: Weekly followed by 60mins.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: good fit but not quite reliable
Market Direction: upper bias
Position: flat, some would still be long with a tighter stop

Last few days have been pretty easy. Good bounce on pivot level due to some portfolio adjustment on new quarter, and momentum taking prices to Fib + MM target.

60mins: hesitation on target level
Now that profits have been taken, we can see thatMomentum has dissipated fast on target level (MM + Fib). Only remains a slight upper bias on the MTFS indicator.
Entropy is confirming current indecision. This market may be sensitive to news, otherwise should retrace a bit in the short term (quite a strong resistance).

Daily: back to upper range boundary
SPY will test range highs in the next few days. MTFS is looking positive but significance level is very low, hence caution is required. Again, we shall keep the current upper bias into account and check SPY's behaviour on range highs for future direction. A breakout is in the cards, but it still looks too early to happen in the next few days.

Weekly: no significant change yet.
As expected, the bounce took SPY up to PR1 (38.2% retracement). This is good news and negative pressure may dissipate quicker. Yet, the MTFS pattern does not show any long term recovery potential, so we'll look at each Fib and MM resistance levels carefully. For the time being, SPY should remain within the same range (mid to upper 130s).