Sunday, September 28, 2008

Weekly Outlook for ES - 29 Sep to 3 Oct '08

Dominant TF: weekly, 60mins with Daily lagging behind
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from UP-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): short or preferably flat. Following intraday time frames is most recommended, but staying on the side line is fine too.

Oh well... true, i saw a 2 segment retracement to 1219 before monday last week, and to no surprise, volatility brought it down even further to tease the 1180s again. The good thing is that the 60mins chart always responded nicely. Lower time frames behaved like a charm too. Now what to expect? We'll stick to a still negative bias overall with a high probability the worst is behind us. Does that mean a recovery is under way? If so, it is still well hidden.

ES 60mins: stil range bound
Again we recommend lower time frames here. on this chart, we'll watch the 1219 resistance which could at last open the way to 1250. Until then, we can only expect more of the same uncertainty... We've got a slight upper bias for now, so we may have not to wait too long.
(UPDATE 6AM: bailout finalisation is jittering markets again - Will post a new report later today when support is visible - Could return to recent lows )

Daily: ? ? ?
Entropy is improving but no clear pattern otherwise, and this until the 2 spikes are fully digested. I would recommend waiting a few more days for volatility to reduce. Bars are still yellow after all, and so do not express any strong recovery yet.

Weekly: Congestion to lower for now
Still some negative pressure here despite higher lows. The market may congest below the key 1250 level which remains crucial to a long term rebound.
The market could certainly stay in "hangover mode" for a while...