Weekly Outlook on ER2 from Sep 8th to 12th '08

Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins with Weekly close behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-UP-DN) Weekly direction is hesitant still
Market Direction(daily): long
Options (RUT): September/October call options are placed above 875 for 100% safety otherwise 810 is very safe. I personally think 790 is more than safe enough (strong res at 782) for Sep expiry (less than 10 days).

Last week post indicated a pause, and the mid week update clearly announced the effect of an "air pocket" which is certainly an adequate picture for the turbulences we've seen late in the week. Having said that, looking at our charts, no reason to worry... those things happen and we just have to tighten our seat belts for a while.

EURUSD: we reached our 1.435 target, even a little quicker than anticipated. The $ even hit just below 1.42 but 1.435 is really a strong test level for now. A retracement would certainly make some sense, but in the meantime we'll again go with the flow. The next target is in the 1.367 to 1.383 area still looks some distance away.

60mins: high volatility but fairly clear swings
Ready to pick up again after a sizeable retracement on major 750 level in the form of a quick Fib pattern prices right down to the 700s. Traders should now preferably switch to another set of time frames either lower or higher to take advantage of the current market conditions.

Daily: much ado about not much
We might now see prices hover around the same area and probably pass the 750 level. We have a Fib target around 773 now in sight. Yet, the market may again also calm down on a salient level until the latest news are fully digested and priced in. In all probability, we have 2 price segments: one is [719-750] and [750-782] both being possibly also cut into 2 equal halves. We'll therefore watch price jumps and settlements in such or such area according to energy now coming to the market. At this time i.e. prior to the open on Monday, we have no visibility of a jump above the 750 level just yet.

Weekly: upper bias yet still same trading range for now...
Again, no change (simple copy&paste) from last week.
We're now again testing range boundary to a possible yet difficult breakout to the 780s. Again, we've no or little support from Entropy or MTFS to suggest more than a summer recovery with no underlying strength to take prices higher for now. There's even some 'frustration' not to have seen a clear MTFS pattern completion, but the adaptive indicator may still evolve later on. We therefore have to wait a bit still for a clearer scenario for 4th quarter.
Note: we do have a MTFS crossover to monitor, even if not in ideal situation.