Wednesday, November 26, 2008

I can smell the turkey baking already...

A quick note to readers and users of this TS-TT:
Please tell me about your trading, how you use this report, how successful you are with it. Most non-users take it as context information and make money filtering their own trades with it. Obviously, it is only a daily snapshot, and it is not as good as seeing it live. The reason for this question is that this technology will eventually be sold during the course of 2009, and only users who have expressed interest stand a chance to be listed as exceptions to the license's exclusive rights. Anyway, we still have a few months ahead of us.

Let's have a look at our charts:

EURUSD: The pause announced on 1.295 resistance level lasted about half a day after which € charged in to test a stall level at 1.306. Next resistance level is 1.318, but energy is now lacking a bit. As mentioned on the weekly report, there is now a definite change in mindset and the $ will certainly weaken (is deleveraging coming to an end...?). For the time being €/$ stays in a channel (60mins) and should eventually reach 1.306 and then 1.330. Lack of energy and volatility make it however difficult to detect retracement points along the way.

ER: The resistance level mentioned yesterday is still there, and despite some minor profit taking, ER has proven quite resilient. Here again, energy starts lacking so there is a good chance of erosion. Maybe a good chance to try and enter long on aggressive limit orders. With a bit of luck, one can maybe enter long below 420 within a day or two.

ES: Again, very similar situation. ES found enough impetus to go test the 875 resistance level (yesterday's high of 874 to be exact). Here too, the change in mindset is obvious, but we can also try and enter agressively as we have a typical "failed recovery" pattern on the Daily chart, so a retracement is almost already written. ES may possibly hover high still, but it should eventually retrace to the high 810s, low 820s before breaking the channel and travel to 1000. Obviously, we'll also play the channel breakout if the retracement proves too contained.