Monday, November 24, 2008

Weekly Report on ES - Nov 24th to 28th '08

Last week monday, the title on the daily comment was "not looking good" and the weekly was on a similar tone. Now that we've hit our target, we're back to our drawing board trying to make some sense out of our charts. Markets being largely correlated, so please also read the ER report below.

ES 60mins: bouncing on key support level
Same dynamics as for ER, ES is aiming back at MM/Fib level around 812. The swing gradient follows the amazing recovery on Friday and is obviously unstable. So ES could hit the target, then retrace back a support around 781 to 784. We'll have to confirm that scenario tomorrow. Should volatility play tricks again, 812 could be passed then tested for support later. I doubt this could happen within a day though ( a lower intraday time frame is needed here )

Daily: hmmm not looking great still
This is where we certainly have to remain cautious. Our indicators are still bearish even if immensely oversold. Secondly, the 750 level appears a little weaker, so while we are moving away from danger zone, we're certainly not out of the woods yet.
We'll wait for a blue bar, a channel breakout and MM/Fib levels to go long at this time frame. For the time being, we remain short with tighter stops or flat.

Weekly: inches away from Fib target.
Here as well, one should certainly aim at a quick turnaroung and start buying frantically already. The situation is similar to the daily chart i.e. bearish and at the same time very oversold. Volatility may push players to test 710 and then only call for the end of the game. As we've seen in other markets, we do have some indications of a pending turnaround, which i call a change in mindset, but it is in no way confirmed on our charts yet.

- Today's chart snapshot is commented.
- Like for ER, daily updates will be posted on this blog this week again.

(posted 1:20 AM Eastern)