Weekly Report on ES - Nov 3rd to 7th '08

Markets are again largely correlated so we again always recommended reading this report in conjunction with our latest ER report below. Dynamics are indeed similar except that we may be tempted to look at shorter time frames such as 30mins. In terms of levels, we do notice a bottom last week on MM stall level (60mins) where it was even clearer on ER, but the picture is clearer overall, and we now have to gauge whether the market is now ready for the "1000" battle...

ES 60mins: on stall level
ES is slowing down on stall level (~968) as we could expect it. We may lack sufficient energy to reach 1000 this monday but this will happen sooner or later anyway. We'll check Fib/MM levels both from this stall level as well as from 1000, and our MTFS/Entropy shall tell us which we to navigate. A lower time frame will also be helpful here.

Daily: Preparing for battle
1000 is now around the corner. However, at this point in time, we don't see ES sailing through that important level and some retracement on 1000-1010 seems inevitable. Such retracement could send prices back to current levels, so we may have high volatility, wild swings... to maybe end the week almost unchanged. We'll follow the possible scenario day after day anyway.

Weekly: no rejoicing just yet!
We still have no evidence whatsoever of a forthcoming recovery and current volatility may cause amazing whipsaw movements. We have to remain very cautious if we want to invest long term. This is a time for intraday traders...

NB: Like for ER, daily updates will be posted on this blog this week again.