Monday, December 01, 2008

Weekly Report on ES - Dec 1st to 5th '08

ES 60mins: stretching resistance level
Same dynamics as for ER although a little more contained. It is difficult to say whether one should take volumes too seriously for the 2nd part of last week as it seems ES has been gliding a little too high and may fly through a air pocket now. Despite being overbought, we foresee no change in the overall bullish sentiment. We just have to check where support will be tested, possibly in the 875 area, or a 1st Fib level below.

Daily: not looking too bad now at last
Obviously the MTFS recovery is a big question mark but a channel breakout could trigger some buying to the 1st Fib level (~960). We do not anticipate it just yet and some consolidation is more likely. Again, even if the worst is probably over, we shouldn't too bullish too quickly at this time frame at least.

Weekly: inches away from Fib target.
Here as well, one should certainly NOT aim at a quick turnaround and start buying frantically already. The situation is similar to the daily chart i.e. bearish and at the same time very oversold. Like for ER, we shall wait a couple of weeks and maybe until January to confirm a reversal even if we do not anticipate more than a crawling back to former higher over at least one year.