Monday, February 02, 2009

Weekly Report on ER - Feb 2nd to Feb 6th '09

While being considerably oversold, EURUSD is now aiming straight towards 1.2695 Obviously this level is largely anticipated, so a bit of volatility ahead of (or on) target is likely. Our scenario then is a bounce to 1.295 which would be a test level going forward. Let's first wait for our target to be hit. Our target over the next few weeks is still in the 1.24 area, which we shall confirm upon €/$ behaviour on test level.

Swings are all UP and yet all bars are red or yellow at best thus indicating a willingness and unsuccessful attempt attempt so far to find support in this area.

ER 60mins: As mentioned above, we do have early signs of a bottom indicated by Entropy recovery, MTFS white line trying to pick up in oversold territory, Swing toggling up etc. Yet, it seems almost inevitable that the market will try and hit its target around 438. That MM support level looks quite strong though, so we'll watch ER's behaviour carefully.

ER Daily: Our configuration despite uncertainty in the last couple of weeks still sustains our scenario of a market recovery on a support to be confirmed still. At this juncture, the pivot point could well be the 438 area already mentioned. As a reminder, i've been giving a "aggressive limit long" notice for long term players, with the additional caveat that this is a early warning only (bars are still red). Most traders will wait for pivot confirmation with blue bars.
Furthermore, we have to remain cautious that we still have two potential opposite Fib patterns forming.

ER Weekly: In agreement with our daily outlook, the weekly chart is also hesitant with Entropy failing to confirm it's recovery. We still favour a 'cup&handle' formation but we certainly have to wait for a confirmation of the forthcoming pivot (~438), blue bars, and at this time frame, see 500 clearly passed and tested for support. Again, one can try an aggressive limit long order with a stop near last year's lows, or wait and hop on the bandwagon a little later.

( posted 7:25 AM UK )